The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.11% yesterday, an increase of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.28%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.56% yesterday, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.54%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates did poorly yesterday following a better-than-expected jobs report. However, they rose that day by less than they fell on Tuesday, so we're still up on the week so far.
The surprise is that they didn't increase more. MarketWatch has a possible explanation: "The January employment report offered glimmers of hope the labor market is exiting a deep funk, but one thing didn't change. Most of the jobs are being created in just one area: healthcare." That may be too many eggs in one basket for some investors' comfort.
This morning's economic reports are relatively minor, and we'll be surprised if they move mortgage rates much.
Tomorrow is very different. It brings January's consumer price index (CPI), which has almost as much potential to change those rates as the almighty jobs report.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.14% | +0.06% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.28% | 5.32% | +0.05% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.77% | +0.04% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.77% | +0.03% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.73% | +0.06% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.54% | 6.55% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.02% | +0.08% | -0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.17% | 6.2% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | +0.03% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.73% | +0.04% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.03% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.97% | 6% | -0.02% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economic team gave its preview of the week ahead:
"Payrolls growth likely picked up in January after disappointing during last year’s holiday season. Downward revisions in the annual “benchmark revisions” will probably dominate this week’s economic headlines, but are largely old news—the revisions are to job growth between March 2024 and March 2025, and provide no new information about more recent trends. The unemployment rate likely edged higher in January. Retail sales likely grew solidly in December as new car sales rose; consumers sound ornery in surveys, but are still spending.
"CPI inflation likely slowed in January, but the improvement should be read with a grain of salt: The 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of some price surveys, making CPI look unrealistically low now. The CPI will likely move a notch higher in April when the government’s statisticians fill the gaps in the data."
These predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on different forecasts from a broader range of experts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But they're both fairly unimportant, and we'll be surprised if they have much impact on mortgage rates.
They are:
- New claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Feb. 7 — Markets expect 225,000 new claims, better than the previous week's 231,000
- January existing home sales — Markets expect 4.15 million sales (annualized), fewer than December's 4.35 million
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. So, today we'd like to see more initial jobless claims and fewer existing homes sold than markets are expecting.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's CPI could have a big effect on mortgage rates. Markets are expecting a modest increase on Friday. However, The Wall Street Journal recently warned of the potential for a nasty shock.
"Many on Wall Street are bracing for an unpleasant surprise. In recent years, inflation in January has tended to come in relatively hot," The Journal said in an article headlined Why Inflation May Be About to Come in Hot. "Last year, the consumer price index, which tracks the cost of a basket of goods and services, rose more in January than in any other month. The same thing happened in 2023. January wasn’t the hottest month for inflation in 2024, but it was close."
Hot (high) inflation figures are pretty much always bad for mortgage rates, just as cool ones are good.
