The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.11% today, an increase of 0.06% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.28%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.56%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.54%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates had a good day yesterday, falling to their lowest level since Jan. 12, according to ICanBuy's data. Led by retail sales, yesterday's economic reports were all disappointing, with the employment cost index the sole exception. As a result, mortgage rates fell moderately.
This morning's jobs report for January, due at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, has the potential to move those rates even further. Most months, it's the most consequential of all economic reports.
If it contains disappointing data, that could easily send mortgage rates lower, possibly into the high end of the 5% range. However, if it suggests that the labor market is more robust than everyone is expecting, those rates could bounce higher again.
Friday's consumer price index (CPI) for January can be nearly as influential as the jobs report. So, stand by for that.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.14% | +0.06% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.28% | 5.32% | +0.05% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.77% | +0.04% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.63% | 5.77% | +0.03% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.73% | +0.06% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.54% | 6.55% | +0.03% | -0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.02% | +0.08% | -0.15% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.17% | 6.2% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.26% | 5.3% | +0.03% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.73% | +0.04% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.03% | -0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.97% | 6% | -0.02% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank's economic team gave its preview of the week ahead:
"Payrolls growth likely picked up in January after disappointing during last year’s holiday season. Downward revisions in the annual “benchmark revisions” will probably dominate this week’s economic headlines, but are largely old news—the revisions are to job growth between March 2024 and March 2025, and provide no new information about more recent trends. The unemployment rate likely edged higher in January. Retail sales likely grew solidly in December as new car sales rose; consumers sound ornery in surveys, but are still spending.
"CPI inflation likely slowed in January, but the improvement should be read with a grain of salt: The 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of some price surveys, making CPI look unrealistically low now. The CPI will likely move a notch higher in April when the government’s statisticians fill the gaps in the data."
These predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on different forecasts from a broader range of experts.
Mortgage rates today
There is really only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. A second, this afternoon's federal budget, is likely to be overshadowed by the star report, which is formally called the employment situation report but widely known as the jobs report.
This morning's jobs report for January contains three headline figures:
- Nonfarm payrolls (the number of new jobs created that month) — Markets expect 55,000 new jobs, better than December's 50,000
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect that to hold steady at 4.4%
- Hourly wages — Markets expect those to have grown by 0.3% that month, again unchanged since December
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. So, today we'd like to see fewer new jobs and slower growth in hourly wages. However, the higher the unemployment rate is, the better it is for those rates.
Should you call your lender and lock your rate this morning if the jobs report is really bad? We probably would. But we'd be aware that Friday's CPI could drag rates even lower if it's bad — or push them higher if it's good.
If you choose to call, don't wait for this afternoon. Typically, lenders adjust their rates at lunchtime if mortgage rates are especially volatile, though some might do so earlier if things get crazy.
