The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.06% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.23%, down by 0.06%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.52%, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.51%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. There were no economically significant news stories out of left field and no economic reports to trigger any action.
That changes today with this morning's retail sales data. We often think of that as the third most important of all the monthly reports.
The most important is typically the monthly jobs report, which is due tomorrow, and the No. 2 slot is usually taken by the consumer price index (CPI), which is due on Friday.
It's very rare to have all three star reports in the same week, and that may make investors especially jittery. Jitters can lead to volatility in mortgage rates and other markets.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.06% | 6.08% | -0.07% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.23% | 5.28% | -0.06% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.52% | 6.74% | -0.07% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.6% | 5.74% | -0.06% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.53% | 5.67% | -0.08% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.51% | 6.52% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.9% | 5.93% | -0.05% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.11% | 6.13% | -0.05% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.23% | 5.26% | -0.05% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.49% | 6.7% | -0.05% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.62% | 5.76% | -0.05% | -0.14% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.01% | +-0% | -0.1% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week
In an e-newsletter yesterday, Comerica Bank's economic team gave its preview of the week ahead:
"Payrolls growth likely picked up in January after disappointing during last year’s holiday season. Downward revisions in the annual “benchmark revisions” will probably dominate this week’s economic headlines, but are largely old news—the revisions are to job growth between March 2024 and March 2025, and provide no new information about more recent trends. The unemployment rate likely edged higher in January. Retail sales likely grew solidly in December as new car sales rose; consumers sound ornery in surveys, but are still spending.
"CPI inflation likely slowed in January, but the improvement should be read with a grain of salt: The 2025 government shutdown interrupted collection of some price surveys, making CPI look unrealistically low now. The CPI will likely move a notch higher in April when the government’s statisticians fill the gaps in the data."
These predictions often differ from market expectations, which are based on different forecasts from a broader range of experts.
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. They are:
- December retail sales — Markets expect those to grow by 0.5% that month, more slowly than November's 0.6%
- January optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business — Markets expect that to hold steady at 99.5
- Employment cost index for the fourth quarter of 2024 — Markets expect that to come in at 0.8%, unchanged since Q3
- Import price index for December — No change expected
- November business inventories — Markets expect those to have grown by 0.2% that month, more slowly than October's 0.3%
Typically, mortgage rates move lower on worse-than-expected data and rise when the numbers are better than expected. But that tends to apply only to crucial reports, and the only one of those today is retail sales.
Still, a big gap between expectations and actuals in the employment cost index might also trigger a response. We doubt the others will make a measurable difference to those rates unless they contain truly shocking figures.
