The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.15% yesterday, a decrease of 0.09% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.34%, down by 0.09%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.63% yesterday, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.64%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday brought two economic reports on the labor market that significantly affected mortgage rates, moving them appreciably lower. Why didn't we warn you of that possibility?
Because we didn't know it was a possibility. December's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) was postponed earlier in the week, while the weekly new jobless claims report was due yesterday but marked as delayed by MarketWatch. So, both popped up without any notice.
Even if we had known they would be published, we probably wouldn't have flagged them as all that significant. They rarely are.
But yesterday's job openings were very much lower than anyone was expecting (6.5 million actual vs. 7.1 million forecast), and initial jobless claims were worse than expected, too.
Separately, Challenger, Gray & Christmas published its regular tally of U.S. job cuts on Thursday, which showed the highest number of layoffs for the month of January since 2009, according to Axios. No wonder markets freaked out.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.15% | 6.18% | -0.09% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.39% | -0.09% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.83% | -0.03% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.04% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.84% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.64% | 6.65% | +0.03% | +0.22% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.91% | 5.95% | -0.12% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.24% | 6.26% | -0.07% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.39% | -0.06% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.79% | -0.03% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.9% | -0.06% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.95% | 5.97% | -0.08% | -0.08% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. They are:
- The first reading of consumer sentiment in February — Markets expect the index to fall to 55.0 from 56.4 in January
- December consumer credit — Markets expect a sharp increase in consumer borrowing: by $8.0 billion that month, compared with $4.2 billion in November
Typically, worse-than-expected figures exert downward pressure on mortgage rates, while better-than-expected data pushes those rates higher. So, today, we'd like to see numbers smaller than 55.0 and bigger than $8 billion.
No economic reports are scheduled for next Monday, but the two biggest economic reports of the month are both due later that week. The jobs report is now scheduled for Wednesday, and the consumer price index for Friday. Stand by for those.
