The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.2% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.37%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.63% yesterday, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.62%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates edged up just a little yesterday, according to ICanBuy figures. That might all have changed on Friday with the publication of the official jobs report, typically the most influential of all economic reports.
However, that publication was postponed yesterday.
"The January jobs report won’t be released as scheduled Friday because of a partial government shutdown, a spokeswoman for the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Monday," reported The Wall Street Journal yesterday.
"It marks the second time in five months that work has stopped at the federal government’s primary economic-statistics agency," continued the Journal. "The report will be rescheduled when funding resumes, the spokeswoman said."
Yes, other reports could trigger movements in mortgage rates before then, but we'll be surprised if any makes a real difference.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.22% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | +0% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.03% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.62% | 6.63% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.06% | -0.04% | +0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.28% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.39% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.79% | +0.01% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.9% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
So, postponement of Friday's jobs report doesn't mean other forces couldn't drive more significant changes. For example, the current partial government shutdown might begin to infect market sentiment.
Perhaps more importantly, commentators have been predicting for weeks the imminent publication of the Supreme Court's decision on the legality of 2025's major tariff innovations. And that could land any day.
What effect the judgment would have is anyone's guess. Mortgage rates rose when tariffs were implemented, but a decision against the government won't necessarily see them fall.
Senior administration figures have already signaled that they'd simply change the legal basis for the tariffs, while leaving them in place. That would start the slow wheels of the law turning again from square one.
Meanwhile, the judgment could force the government to repay the American companies that have been paying most of the estimated $287 billion raised by tariffs last year. That could cause a sharp increase in government
borrowing, which might disrupt debt markets and push mortgage rates
higher.
Mortgage rates today
There are again three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
The first is the January purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). PMIs can be influential because they measure activity in organizations' procurement departments, and so are a gauge of future economic activity. This one is most months' most important PMI.
This morning's job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) for December is usually less influential than it deserves to be. It offers a monthly peek under the hood of the labor market.
Today's third report is another January PMI for the services sector, this time from S&P Global. This tends to move markets less than the ISM's equivalent, and doesn't get a forecast on which to base market expectations.
Typically, mortgage rates move downward when actual figures are worse than markets expected. Conversely, they often move higher on better-than-expected numbers. When data matches expectations, those rates rarely move.
Today's reports are:
- January PMI for the services sector from the ISM — Markets expect 53.5%, slightly weaker than the previous 54.4%
- December JOLTS — Markets expect 7.1 million job openings, unchanged from November
- January PMI for the services sector from S&P Global — No market expectations
Tomorrow brings the January ADP employment report, which some see as a bellwether for those all-important monthly jobs reports. The postponement of Friday's publication just might give the ADP data greater significance than usual.
