The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.2% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.63%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.62%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates ended January very close to where they started it. The average for a 30-year fixed-rate was 6.17% on Friday evening. It was 6.18% on January 2, according to ICanBuy figures.
There was a moment, on Jan. 12, when there was a real possibility of mortgage rates dipping below 6%. However, that was immediately killed, mostly by tariff threats against European trading partners.
Economic reports
We're due employment reports on three days this week, culminating in Friday's official jobs report for January, which often contains the most influential economic data of all monthly reports.
An unexpectedly bad jobs report (fewer new jobs and a rising unemployment rate) could change the mood in markets and send mortgage rates tumbling. But better-than-expected figures would usually have the opposite effect on those rates.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.22% | +0.02% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | +0% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0.03% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.62% | 6.63% | +0.01% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.06% | -0.04% | +0% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.28% | +0.03% | +0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.39% | +0.04% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.79% | +0.01% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.9% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.04% | -0.03% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But only one is sufficiently important to get a forecast of its figures.
That's the January purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). And, based on that forecast, markets are expecting a small improvement: to 48.4% from 47.9% previously.
Typically, mortgage rates move downward when actual figures are worse than markets expected. Conversely, they often move higher on better-than-expected numbers. When data matches expectations, those rates rarely move.
Today's other reports are:
- January auto sales — Figures released during the day by individual vehicle manufacturers
- January PMI for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — This covers the same ground as the ISM PMI, but is less influential
Tomorrow brings January PMIs for the services sector, which is more important than manufacturing. And we should also get our first employment-related report: the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) for December.
