The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.16% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.31%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.61% yesterday, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.38%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates moved only modestly higher yesterday. That morning's economic reports were a little better than expected, and markets may have been slightly disappointed by the afternoon's Federal Reserve minutes. So, a small rise wasn't a big surprise.
"When the Federal Reserve met to cut interest rates this month, some officials said they were reluctant to support more easing in the near future, according to minutes of the meeting published Tuesday — a sign that further cuts could face resistance at the next meeting in January," reported The Wall Street Journal soon after the minutes were published.
"The written record of the Fed’s December meeting, released after the customary three-week delay, showed that most members of the Fed’s policy committee thought that rates could eventually fall further if inflation declines," continued The Journal. "The Fed cut rates at three straight meetings to end 2025 as it sought to cushion a weaker labor market."
None of this should have come as a surprise to investors. As the official transcript shows, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told them all that at his news conference immediately following the rate-setting meeting. Still, investors have history when it comes to selectively misremembering Fed warnings.
Today and the rest of this week
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.16% | 6.19% | +0.03% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.31% | 5.35% | +0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +0.06% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | +0.02% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.72% | +0% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.38% | 6.39% | -0.02% | -0.36% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.1% | +0% | +0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | +0.04% | -0.03% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.3% | 5.34% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | +0.06% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.86% | +0.01% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.01% | +0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It records initial jobless claims during the week ending Dec. 27. Markets are expecting 220,000 new claims that week, up from 214,000 a week earlier.
Markets tend not to respond to weekly figures because they reckon they're too "noisy," meaning they're too easily influenced by short-term and one-time events.
Typically, mortgage rates rise on news that is better than expected for the economy, and fall when that news is worse than expected. So, we'd like to see jobless claims above 220,000 today. However, even that is unlikely to affect those rates much.
We're taking tomorrow off, and wish you a very happy and prosperous 2026!
