The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.27% yesterday, an increase of 0.08% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.4%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.67% yesterday, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.38%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Bond markets, one of which largely dictates mortgage rates, close early today at 2 p.m. Eastern. So, in the unlikely event of volatility setting in this morning, its ability to run amok is foreshortened by the brief trading session.
We're not expecting any such volatility today, but one can never rule it out completely. The only scheduled potential triggers are today's lone employment report and a $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasury notes.
However, the economic report contains weekly data on initial jobless claims, and markets typically dismiss weekly figures as too "noisy" to be significant. And yesterday's larger auction of 5-year notes had no discernible effect on mortgage rates.
So, we have great (though not complete) confidence that today will make little difference to mortgage rates.
Tomorrow, of course, is Christmas day, and markets will be closed all day for the holiday. If you celebrate, we wish you a very merry Christmas. To those of other faiths and none, we wish you a happy holiday.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.29% | +0.08% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0.05% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.88% | +0.09% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.15% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.38% | 6.4% | +0.03% | -0.38% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.13% | 6.16% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.36% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.42% | +0.05% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.83% | +0.09% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.05% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | +0.04% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There is just one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That reveals initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 20.
Markets are expecting 225,000 such claims in the new report, up very slightly from the 224,000 reported the previous week.
Mortgage rates are more likely to fall if today's actual figures are higher than markets are expecting. Lower-than-expected numbers often result in those rates rising. And on-forecast figures rarely move mortgage rates at all.
However, in the hierarchy of influential economic reports, weekly jobless figures are a long way from the top. So, today's figures would need to be pretty shocking to move mortgage rates much.
Soon
There are no reports scheduled for tomorrow (Christmas day), which is a public holiday, nor for Friday. And next week is mostly looking unexciting, too.
However, next Wednesday brings the minutes of the Federal Reserve rate-setting committee's last meeting, and those could cause a stir. Besides that, we may have to wait until 2026 for mortgage rate action.
We're taking tomorrow off, so will see you again early on Friday morning.
