The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.27% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.67%, having risen by 0.09. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.38%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
The week started out as we expected, with very little movement in average mortgage rates yesterday. However, there's a chance of more volatility today.
That's because we're due a couple of mid-level economic reports, and also an auction of 5-year U.S. Treasury notes, which are a type of bond.
Mortgage rates often shadow yields on 10-year Treasury notes, and while the next auction of those is not scheduled until Jan. 8, high or low demand at today's $70-billion sale could certainly affect yields on other bonds, including 10-year Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities (MBSs). Movements in MBS yields typically have a direct impact on mortgage rates.
For lower mortgage rates, we need demand to be strong at today's auction. That should push prices higher, which invariably drives yields lower.
There's a smaller, $44 billion auction of 7-year Treasurys due tomorrow, and we'll be hoping for high demand at that one, too.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and what markets are expecting of them.
By the way, we follow The Wall Street Journal's practice of spelling plural Treasury securities as "Treasurys." This differentiates them from "treasuries," which are multiple government departments, such as when, say, describing the U.S. and U.K. treasuries. Apologies if this upsets English-language purists, but it has practical value when writing about financial matters.
👉Stay ahead of the market. Subscribe to the Mortgage Research Network Podcast.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.29% | +0.08% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0.05% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.88% | +0.09% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.15% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.38% | 6.4% | +0.03% | -0.38% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.13% | 6.16% | +0.06% | +0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.36% | +0.08% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.42% | +0.05% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.83% | +0.09% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.05% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | +0.04% | -0.02% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The two that are most likely to affect mortgage rates are:
- Q3 gross domestic product (GDP) — Markets expect this to slow to 3.2% from 3.8% in the second quarter
- December consumer confidence index — Markets expect this to improve to 91.7 from 88.7 previously
Other reports due today include:
- October durable goods orders — Markets expect these to fall by -1.1% after a 0.5% rise in September
- October and November industrial production — Markets expect these figures to remain flat at 0.1%
With all these reports, mortgage rates are more likely to fall if today's actual figures are lower than markets are expecting. Higher-than-expected numbers often result in those rates rising. And on-forecast figures rarely move mortgage rates at all.
The reports most likely to have an impact on mortgage rates usually cover employment, inflation and perhaps retail sales. GDP and consumer confidence sometimes affect those rates, but in a more limited way. Durable goods orders and industrial production reports need to contain shocking figures to have much effect.
Read near the top of this page for more details about today's Treasury auction.
The rest of this week
Tomorrow's sole report records initial jobless claims during the week ending Dec. 20. We doubt it will make much difference to mortgage rates. But don't forget tomorrow's Treasury auction, which we covered above.
There are no reports scheduled for Thursday (Christmas day) or Friday.
