The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.2% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.34%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.58% yesterday, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.36%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's inflation report, the consumer price index (CPI) for November, came in cooler than expected, meaning prices rose more slowly that month than analysts had forecast. And mortgage rates fell modestly that day, as one would typically expect.
However, neither the data nor markets' reactions to it were typical.
"Economists on Thursday warned that a big drop in November inflation had more to do with data challenges caused by the government shutdown than with actual changes in the economy," reported The Wall Street Journal yesterday evening. "Unfortunately, those data problems might be around for months to come.
"The Labor Department issued its report on November prices after the long shutdown, when its workers weren’t able to gather data that they normally would have," continued The Journal. "Many economists think, as a result, that Thursday’s report underestimated the change in consumer prices — and that future reports could be affected too."
Today's market reaction suggests investors shared The Journal's doubts. Indeed, yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which mortgage rates often shadow, were up and down following the CPI's release, though they ended the day lower than they started it.
Perhaps the modest fall in mortgage rates so far this week is justified, despite two rate-friendly blockbuster reports. Some see government figures as tainted since the shutdown, as departments struggle to fill gaps in their data.
This morning's data come from non-governmental sources and may, for now, be more reliable than official figures. Existing home sales reports from the National Association of Realtors® rarely affect mortgage rates, but the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan can.Scroll on down to discover what markets are expecting from today's reports.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | -0.01% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.38% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.04% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.72% | -0.07% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.36% | 6.37% | -0.01% | -0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.06% | +-0% | -0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.27% | -0.04% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.32% | 5.36% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.76% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.83% | -0.06% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | +0.04% | -0.14% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team published its preview of the week:
"The delayed October and November jobs reports probably will show net job losses of around 50,000 as the federal government shed workers," says Comerica. "The unemployment rate likely rose, while wage gains probably slowed. Headline and core CPI [consumer price index] inflation likely held steady in November at around 3% from a year earlier. Retail sales were likely soft in October on a decline in new vehicle sales. Weighed down by the government shutdown, core retail sales likely rose at a moderate clip. Boosted by lower gas prices, a rebound in stock prices, and the end of the shutdown, consumer sentiment [due Friday] probably rose in December. Lower gas prices also likely contributed to households’ near-term inflation expectations edging lower."
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. They are:
- December's final consumer sentiment — Markets expect a modest improvement to 53.5, up from the previous 53.3 reading
- November's existing home sales — Markets expect these to hold steady at 4.1 million, annualized
Higher-than-expected figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected numbers often pull those rates downward.
Next week
Christmas week brings reports only on Tuesday and Wednesday. The two on Tuesday that might move mortgage rates, probably modestly, are gross domestic product during the third quarter and December's consumer confidence index. We doubt Tuesday's other report, durable goods orders, will have any impact. Wednesday brings weekly initial jobless claims.
