The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.2% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.34%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.58%, having dropped by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.36%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
As the effects of the government shutdown recede, we're beginning to get the official economic reports that were stalled before the reopening. It's taking a while to catch up.
Today's consumer price index (CPI) is arguably the key inflation gauge as far as markets are concerned. And there's a real possibility that mortgage rates could rise or fall sharply on the report's contents, although we'd rank the chances of a small or zero change as somewhat higher.
"Tariffs haven’t produced the kind of price spikes critics predicted, but the rate of inflation moved back up to 3% as of September," MarketWatch noted yesterday afternoon. "That leaves prices rising notably faster than the Fed’s 2% goal. The big question is whether prices continue to go higher — or begin to recede as many top Fed officials and economists expect."
If today's data come in warmer-than-expected (higher numbers than forecast), mortgage rates might rise. But if they come in cooler, those rates could fall.
Scroll on down to discover what markets are expecting from today's CPI, which covers November.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | -0.01% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.38% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.04% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | -0.06% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.58% | 5.72% | -0.07% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.36% | 6.37% | -0.01% | -0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.06% | +-0% | -0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.25% | 6.27% | -0.04% | -0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.32% | 5.36% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.55% | 6.76% | -0.03% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.83% | -0.06% | -0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.08% | +0.04% | -0.14% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team published its preview of the week:
"The delayed October and November jobs reports probably will show net job losses of around 50,000 as the federal government shed workers," says Comerica. "The unemployment rate likely rose, while wage gains probably slowed. Headline and core CPI [consumer price index] inflation likely held steady in November at around 3% from a year earlier. Retail sales were likely soft in October on a decline in new vehicle sales. Weighed down by the government shutdown, core retail sales likely rose at a moderate clip. Boosted by lower gas prices, a rebound in stock prices, and the end of the shutdown, consumer sentiment [due Friday] probably rose in December. Lower gas prices also likely contributed to households’ near-term inflation expectations edging lower."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But the CPI is likely to totally overshadow both of the others.
Like other price indices, the CPI breaks down into four headline components. Two measure price changes during the reporting month (November), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures, measuring those changes between Dec. 1, 2024, and Nov. 30, 2025.
One for each period is the straight CPI, covering all items in the survey. The other for each period shows "core" CPI, which excludes food and energy prices. The idea is that those prices are more volatile than others and can disguise the underlying inflation rate.
Here are what markets are expecting from those four parts of today's report:
- November CPI — Markets are expecting an average increase in all prices of 0.3% in November, unchanged since September
- YOY CPI — Markets are expecting an average increase in all prices of 3.1% over the previous 12 months, a little higher than September's 3.0%
- November core CPI — Markets are expecting an average increase in core prices of 0.3% in November, a little higher than September's 0.2%
- YOY core CPI — Markets are expecting an average increase in core prices of 3.0% over the previous 12 months, unchanged since September
Investors will have already priced those expectations into mortgage rates, and it's the size of the gap between what's expected and what's reported that determines how far those rates are likely to move. Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected figures tend to drag those rates lower.
We'll be surprised if today's two other reports affect mortgage rates at all unless they contain truly shocking data. But, for the sake of completeness, here they are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Dec. 13 — Markets expect 225,000, down from 236,000 the previous week
- December's Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey — Markets expect 3.6, well above November's -1.7
Tomorrow and next week
Today's CPI is the last blockbuster report before Christmas. Others tomorrow and next week are much less likely to move mortgage rates far.
Tomorrow we're due existing home sales in November and December's consumer sentiment index.
Christmas week brings reports only on Tuesday and Wednesday. The two on Tuesday that might move mortgage rates, probably modestly, are gross domestic product during the third quarter and December's consumer confidence index. Wednesday brings weekly initial jobless claims.
