The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.21% today, a decrease of 0.05% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.62%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.37%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's jobs and retail sales reports barely affected mortgage rates, sending them just slightly lower. That doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow's consumer price index (CPI), a key inflation gauge, will be similarly uneventful.
Indeed, there's a chance that it could send mortgage rates sharply higher or lower, depending on what it says. Investors are acutely aware of that, and may cause a bit of volatility today as they jockey for position ahead of the index's publication.
Markets expect November's CPI to be largely unchanged, with only the year-over-year CPI ticking up to 3.1% from 3.0% in September. If there's little or no gap between market expectations and tomorrow's actual figures, there may be little need for mortgage rates to move. But, if the actuals are higher, that could send mortgage rates climbing, while lower-than-expected figures could drag those rates downward.
Once the CPI is out of the way, we're mostly coasting for the rest of the holiday season. We're due the December consumer sentiment index on Friday, and the third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) report and December consumer confidence index next Tuesday. We'll be surprised if any of the few other reports over the next 10 days affect mortgage rates perceptibly.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.21% | 6.24% | -0.05% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.01% | -0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.62% | 6.83% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.03% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.8% | -0.11% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.37% | 6.38% | -0.01% | -0.4% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.07% | -0.04% | -0.16% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.29% | 6.31% | -0.05% | -0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.35% | 5.39% | -0.01% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | -0.02% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.02% | -0.21% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team published its preview of the week:
"The delayed October and November jobs reports probably will show net job losses of around 50,000 as the federal government shed workers," says Comerica. "The unemployment rate likely rose, while wage gains probably slowed. Headline and core CPI [consumer price index, due Thursday] inflation likely held steady in November at around 3% from a year earlier. Retail sales were likely soft in October on a decline in new vehicle sales. Weighed down by the government shutdown, core retail sales likely rose at a moderate clip. Boosted by lower gas prices, a rebound in stock prices, and the end of the shutdown, consumer sentiment [due Friday] probably rose in December. Lower gas prices also likely contributed to households’ near-term inflation expectations edging lower."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
