The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.27% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.38%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.64%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.38%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Financial news outlets are rightly obsessed with this morning's jobs report, formally called the employment situation report. This report, delayed by the government shutdown, covers aspects of October (some data were impossible to collect) and the full November picture."For months, a crucial question has been hanging over the economy: What is really going on in the labor market? On Tuesday, the country will finally start to get some answers," says The Wall Street Journal.
"Recently, the U.S. job market has been in an uneasy balance," continues The Journal. "Hiring has fallen beneath its pre-Covid level, a consequence of cooling demand for workers but also slower growth in the number of people seeking jobs due to government restrictions on immigrants. Changing tariff policies and increased costs are among the reasons why companies don’t want to load up on new workers. Hopes by company executives that artificial intelligence can handle more work have even led to some white-collar layoffs."
Barron's says, "For Tuesday’s report, economists tracked by FactSet are looking for a 50,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in November, after
a 119,000 gain in September, leaving the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.4%." But it goes on to cite various analysts who expect a worse picture, with the economy shedding jobs and the unemployment rate rising.
Such uncertainty can create volatility in markets and mortgage rates, so strap in for this morning's jobs numbers. October's retail sales figures are due at the same time, and those, too, normally have the potential to cause upheaval.
However, Barron's suggests, "Consumer spending powers two-thirds of the U.S. economy, and slowing GDP is a major headwind to bull markets. But consumers have remained resilient so far, and a strong holiday season — coupled with higher tax returns in the spring — means that once again, investors can worry about that later." We'll see later how correct that analysis is.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.29% | +0.01% | -0.11% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.42% | +-0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.64% | 6.85% | -0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.01% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.9% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.38% | 6.39% | +0.03% | -0.36% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.1% | -0.02% | -0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.36% | +0.03% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.4% | +0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.6% | 6.81% | -0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.91% | +0% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.04% | 6.06% | -0.03% | -0.11% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
On Monday, Comerica Bank's economics team published its preview of the week in an e-newsletter:
"The delayed October and November jobs reports probably will show net job losses of around 50,000 as the federal government shed workers," says Comerica. "The unemployment rate likely rose, while wage gains probably slowed. Headline and core CPI [consumer price index, due Thursday] inflation likely held steady in November at around 3% from a year earlier. Retail sales were likely soft in October on a decline in new vehicle sales. Weighed down by the government shutdown, core retail sales likely rose at a moderate clip. Boosted by lower gas prices, a rebound in stock prices, and the end of the shutdown, consumer sentiment [due Friday] probably rose in December. Lower gas prices also likely contributed to households’ near-term inflation expectations edging lower."
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, the jobs report is likely to overshadow them all.
Jobs reports comprise three headline figures:
- November nonfarm payrolls (number of new jobs created or destroyed) — 45,000 new jobs expected, down from September's 119,000
- November unemployment rate — Expected to inch up to 4.5% from 4.4% in September
- November hourly wages — Expected to rise at a 0.3% rate, faster than September's 0.25%
Those market expectations are sourced from MarketWatch. Better-than-expected figures usually push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones tend to drag those rates down.
Mostly, higher figures are better than lower ones for the economy, but not for mortgage rates. However, the unemployment rate is an exception; it's economically undesirable when that rises. Hourly wage increases can also be an exception, but only if they rise so quickly that they suggest the start of an inflation spiral.
The worse-is-better-for-mortgage-rates rule applies to today's other reports, too. Those are led today by October's retail sales, which are expected to have grown at a 0.1% rate that month, a little slower than September's 0.2%.
Also today, we're expecting a couple of December purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) from S&P Global along with September's business inventories. But we'll be surprised if they get much attention when investors are busy digesting jobs and retail sales data.
No economic reports are due tomorrow, but Thursday's consumer price index could rival today's blockbusters, depending on what it says.
