The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.26% today, a decrease of 0.03% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.38%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.65%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.35%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Last Friday morning, we asked whether the previous two days of falling mortgage rates were the start of a trend. We thought not, and our skepticism was reinforced by a moderate rise later that day.
What caused that rise? We suspect it was markets continuing to digest last Wednesday's Federal Reserve events. We were surprised that markets were so happy after those.
True, the Fed cut its Federal funds rate (and therefore most variable-rate borrowing costs) by 25 basis points, which is 0.25%. But virtually everyone was expecting that, so it was already priced into stocks and bonds.
That day's other events really shouldn't have caused soaring stock and bond prices. In particular, the Fed revealed that it had penciled in only one or possibly two further rate cuts through the whole of 2026. Yes, markets are notorious for their short-termism, but you might think Wednesday's sugar rush might have been moderated by the prospect of a famine.
Anyway, Friday saw stock and bond prices falling back. Mortgage rates are determined by the yield on a type of bond, and bond yields invariably move inversely to bond prices.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.28% | -0.03% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.43% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.86% | +0.01% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +-0% | +0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.77% | 5.91% | +0.06% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.35% | 6.36% | +-0% | -0.39% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.12% | -0.02% | +0.01% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.03% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.36% | 5.39% | -0.02% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.61% | 6.82% | +0% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.91% | +-0% | +0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.07% | 6.1% | -0.04% | -0.08% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
This week
On Saturday, Barron's Review and Preview e-newsletter laid out its calendar for this week:
"Wall Street can usually take it easy after the December Federal Reserve meeting, as it’s usually the last big macroeconomic event for the year. Not this year. Next [now this] week, we’ll get an update on both the labor market, which has been weakening, and inflation which has stubbornly stayed above the Fed’s 2% target. This tension is what has left the FOMC [the Fed's rate-setting committee] deeply divided, with dissents in both directions at the last two monetary-policy meetings. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the November jobs report on Tuesday and the consumer price index [CPI] on Thursday, both delayed because of the government shutdown."
We'd add retail sales for October, also due tomorrow, to the jobs report and CPI as potentially critical to mortgage rates. As always with these reports, we won't know whether each will push mortgage rates higher or lower until we see the new numbers.
Markets have forecasts for each headline element of these reports and will price in those expected outcomes before each is published. So, mortgage rates won't need to move unless the forecasts are off.
Typically, better-than-expected news tends to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected figures usually drag them lower. Mostly, we're rooting for higher-than-expected numbers, but it's the lower the better for inflation.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Neither of those typically moves mortgage rates far. They are:
- December Empire State manufacturing survey — Expected to tumble to 10.0 from 18.7
- December home builder confidence index — Expected to hold steady at 38
As these lack influence in most markets, we'll be surprised if they move mortgage rates perceptibly.
