The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.23% yesterday, a decrease of 0.12% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.39%, down by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.35%, reflecting a decrease of 0.18%.
The bigger picture
Are falling mortgage rates over the last couple of days the start of a longer trend? Nobody knows for sure, but few experts think so.
"The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is well below the year-to-date average of 6.62%, providing some sense of balance to the housing market," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, yesterday. Freddie's Thursday-to-Wednesday weekly average was 6.22% that day.
That's close to the bottom end of the 52-week average, which can only be good. However, the chances of it dipping significantly lower look slim.
Our colleague Mary Beth Eastman wrote 2026 Mortgage Rates Forecast According to Experts on Nov. 21. And her analysis of experts' forecasts showed an average predicted mortgage rate (for a 30-year fixed-rate loan) of 6.2% next year.
Fannie Mae is expecting a 5.9% average, but the Mortgage Bankers Association thinks 6.4% is more likely. All the others were between those two extremes. Yesterday, Realtor.com confirmed that the average forecast rate for the end of 2026 among the same expert groups remains 6.2%.
So, don't expect that the Federal Reserve's Wednesday cut to general interest rates will make much difference to mortgage rates. That's especially true as the Fed seems to be penciling in only one or two further cuts across the whole of next year.
Yes, there will be ups and downs over the next 12 months, and, no doubt, some opportunities for bargains. But those expecting rates in the low- and middle-5% range are likely to be disappointed, at least according to people who study mortgage rates for a living.
True, it wouldn't be the first time we've been wrong. But those delaying buying a home or refinancing a mortgage in the hope of significantly lower rates sometime soon may have a very long wait.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | -0.12% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.44% | -0.12% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +-0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.83% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.35% | 6.37% | -0.18% | -0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.12% | 6.15% | -0.03% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.13% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | -0.11% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.83% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.85% | -0.07% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | -0.08% | -0.23% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Next week's blockbuster reports
Next week brings three blockbuster economic reports, each of which could move mortgage rates appreciably. Next Tuesday's calendar contains both the combined jobs reports for October and November, plus retail sales in October. Then, next Thursday, we're due the consumer price index (CPI) for November.
As Powell explained in his news conference on Wednesday, the Fed's current dilemma is whether it should cut rates to boost employment or hold them steady to cool warm inflation. These reports might reveal whether Fed rate setters made the right or wrong calls that day.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. That's wholesale inventories in September.
We can't recall an occasion on which this particular report moved mortgage rates even a little.
