The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.23% today, a decrease of 0.12% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.39%, down by 0.12%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.66%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.35%, reflecting a decrease of 0.18%.
The bigger picture
Taken overall, yesterday's Federal Reserve events cheered up Wall Street and led to higher stock indices and lower mortgage rates. Probably.Actually, the lower mortgage rates are debatable. Mortgage News Daily says they fell modestly, but ICanBuy reckons they inched higher.
Still, overall, the news was pretty good. "Federal Reserve officials cut interest rates at their third consecutive meeting, but signaled a move to the sidelines amid unusual internal divisions over whether inflation or the job market should be their bigger worry," said The Wall Street Journal.
As we reported yesterday, markets weren't expecting further cuts in January or March, and that is now true for the April meeting, too, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Still, most investors seem to anticipate a couple more cuts in 2026, partly based on the Fed's "dot plot," which is on page 4 of yesterday's summary of economic projections.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell took a calm stance at his news conference. "The adjustments to our policy stance since September bring [general interest rates based on the Federal funds rate] within a range of plausible estimates of neutral and leave us well positioned to determine the extent and timing of additional adjustments to our policy rate based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks," he said, according to the Fed's official transcript.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | -0.12% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.44% | -0.12% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +-0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.69% | 5.83% | -0.04% | +0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.75% | 5.89% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.35% | 6.37% | -0.18% | -0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.12% | 6.15% | -0.03% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.13% | -0.07% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.41% | -0.11% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.83% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.72% | 5.85% | -0.07% | +0.03% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | -0.08% | -0.23% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Next week's blockbuster reports
Next week brings three blockbuster economic reports, each of which could move mortgage rates appreciably. Next Tuesday's calendar contains both the combined jobs reports for October and November, plus retail sales in October. Then, next Thursday should bring the consumer price index (CPI) for November.
As Powell explained in his news conference yesterday, the Fed's current dilemma is whether it should cut rates to boost employment or hold them steady to cool warm inflation. These reports might reveal whether Fed rate setters made the right or wrong calls yesterday.
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. We doubt either of them will affect mortgage rates much.
They are:
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Dec. 6 — Markets expect 223,000 new claims, up from the previous week's 191,000
- September trade deficit — Markets expect this to widen slightly to -$62.0 billion from August's -$59.6 billion
Why aren't we expecting much reaction in markets to these reports? Well, we reckon investors might prefer to wait a few days for the big jobs report rather than pay much attention to a weekly (and therefore volatile) report of new jobless claims. And mortgage rates are rarely affected by trade deficits.
Tomorrow's lone report measures wholesale inventories in September. And most markets have the same reaction to that report as you just did: a stifled yawn.
We'll likely have to wait for next Tuesday's blockbuster reports for noticeable market responses to economic data.
