The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.28% yesterday, an increase of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.4%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.58% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.47%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
The biggest movements in mortgage rates this week will likely be down to Federal Reserve activities tomorrow. If you missed our Fed Meeting Preview yesterday, you can still catch up.Will today's employment report affect the Fed's rate decision?
Markets often shrug off job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) reports because they typically cover a period a couple of months before publication. They're too stale.
However, thanks to the government shutdown, today's JOLTS will be the freshest official employment data anyone's seen in months. And both markets and the Fed might pay it close attention.
A really poor report that shows job openings falling fast could improve the chances of mortgage rates falling today and of the Fed cutting general interest rates tomorrow. Conversely, a report that paints a brighter-than-expected picture of the employment landscape could send those rates rising further.
Scroll on down for more information about JOLTS, and to discover what drove mortgage rates higher yesterday.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.28% | 6.3% | +0.04% | -0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0.03% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.8% | -0.01% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.66% | 5.81% | +0.02% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.64% | 5.78% | +0.08% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.47% | 6.49% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.12% | +0.04% | -0.18% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.36% | 6.38% | +0.04% | -0.05% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.43% | +0.05% | -0.03% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.77% | -0.01% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.7% | 5.83% | +0.02% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.1% | 6.14% | +0.04% | -0.28% |
Why did mortgage rates climb yesterday?
Last night, the CME FedWatch tool put the probability of a cut to general interest rates at 89.4%. So, mortgage rates rose yesterday despite most investors expecting the Fed to implement such a cut tomorrow."That’s contrary to how rates traditionally have moved ahead of anticipated Fed cuts," said MarketWatch after markets closed yesterday afternoon. "Typically, when the Fed is expected to keep cutting rates, financial markets factor in the move, and traders then push the 10-year Treasury down. When the 10-year moves downward, the 30-year mortgage rate often falls in tandem."
The most likely reason for this aberration is that many investors believe the Fed will pause further cuts after tomorrow, perhaps for several months. The FedWatch tool shows that most investors are currently not expecting a cut at the following Fed meeting at the end of January, nor at the one in the middle of March. There's hope for another cut at the end of April, though the confidence in that is muted.
We'll know more about the chances of future rate cuts tomorrow afternoon, when the Fed publishes its "dot plot." That's a chart showing anonymized expectations for future rates of individual members of the Fed's rate-setting committee, and it is highly valued by investors.
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
In its weekly preview, Comerica Bank predicts:
"Comerica Economics forecasts for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to cut the federal funds target a quarter of a percentage point to a range of 3.50% and 3.75% at its last decision of the year this Wednesday. Several FOMC members will likely dissent again. The Fed will likely be tight-lipped about the outlook for rates in 2026 given conflicting views among FOMC members. The FOMC probably will signal measures to support short-term funding markets after signs of tight liquidity in them in recent months. Job openings likely fell again in October. The federal government is expected to have run a smaller deficit in November after a very large monthly deficit in October. The trade deficit likely narrowed in September as import demand cooled; importers front-loaded purchases earlier in 2025 to avoid tariffs and so felt less need to buy imports this fall."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. By far the more important is the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) for October.
Markets are expecting that to show 7.2 million job openings that month, the same as in September. A better-than-expected number would typically push mortgage rates higher, while a worse-than-expected one might pull them lower.
The same rule applies to today's other report, the National Federation of Independent Business's (NFIB's) optimism index for November. That's expected to come in at 98.2, again unchanged from the previous month. However, when it comes to mortgage rates, this report is likely to be vastly less influential than JOLTS.
Fed events are likely to dominate markets and mortgage rates tomorrow afternoon. However, there's a chance that the third quarter's employment cost index might have some impact earlier in the day, especially if Wall Street believes this inflation report could influence the Fed's rates decision.
