The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.23% today, a decrease of 0.14% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.37%, down by 0.07%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.59%, having risen by 0.08. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.47%, reflecting an increase of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Will this morning's inflation report, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, affect markets and mortgage rates today? Or will investors think the September data, which were delayed by the government shutdown, are too stale to be of use?
MarketWatch thinks it knows. "Friday’s release of the September report for the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures price index — comes at a crucial time for investors," it said yesterday afternoon. "The hope is that the new PCE report, while delayed, will provide a hard-data reality check that will either confirm the downbeat economic mood or prove, once again, that the vibes are all wrong.
"'Investors are now paying more attention to [Friday’s PCE] because soft data has been so inaccurate,' said Mark Hackett, chief market strategist at Nationwide. 'There’s this confusion that the data that we’re getting is either lagged or incomplete, so the PCE starts filling in the blanks because we need something to guide us, and relying on some of these soft data measures has been problematic for investors."
So, if MarketWatch and Hackett are correct, today might start off bumpy for mortgage rates. And any movement caused by the PCE could be moderated or exaggerated later this morning when the first reading of December's consumer sentiment index is published.
Scroll down for more details of both reports.
Same view, different source
Erika Giovanetti is a U.S. News consumer lending analyst. And her weekly take on mortgage rates often aligns with our daily ones. So, here are a couple of paragraphs from her latest e-newsletter, out yesterday evening, which puts the current situation in a nutshell:
"Mortgage rates have been responding to lower yields on Treasury bonds, which have fallen in recent days due in part to weak employment numbers. In the absence of federal economic data, which has been delayed due to last month’s government shutdown, private payrolls unexpectedly declined, according to human resources technology company ADP. If the Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report for November shows similar weakness, Treasury yields and mortgage rates could potentially drop even further.
"It’s becoming more likely that the Federal Reserve will move to cut interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, which has also fueled the downward movement in mortgage rates. Lenders often ‘price in’ future rate cuts before they happen, rather than reacting to the announcement after the fact. While the Fed doesn’t set or even control mortgage rates, its economic policy has an indirect impact on mortgage pricing. As a general rule, mortgage interest rates tend to be lower when the economy is showing signs of weakness, and higher when the economy is strong."
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.23% | 6.26% | -0.14% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.37% | 5.42% | -0.07% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.59% | 6.8% | +0.08% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.64% | 5.78% | +0.04% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.56% | 5.7% | +0.04% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.47% | 6.49% | +0.03% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.09% | -0.01% | -0.28% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.09% | -0.09% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.34% | 5.38% | -0.09% | -0.07% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.57% | 6.78% | +0.1% | +0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.67% | 5.81% | +0.12% | -0.05% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.1% | +0.03% | -0.33% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
In its preview of this week, Comerica Bank's economics team says:
"The ISM PMI [purchasing managers' index] surveys are expected to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, while the services sector expands at a slower pace. Industrial production probably held steady while capacity utilization eased, in line with softer conditions in manufacturing. Personal incomes likely rose modestly in the delayed September release, while spending probably took a breather after rising robustly in August. Headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Indices are forecast to have risen moderately, holding near 3% in annual terms. Consumer sentiment likely brightened in early December after the end of the government shutdown, while short-and long-term inflation expectations remained elevated."
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But only two are likely to move mortgage rates.
Probably the more important of those is the PCE price index (see above). Like all price indices, it's broken down into four headline figures.
Two relate to the reporting month (September), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Oct. 1, 2024 - Sep. 30, 2025).
Two for each period are straight PCE numbers, measuring price changes in all the items in the survey. The other two are "core" figures, which exclude food and energy prices. Those prices tend to be more volatile than others and can mask the underlying inflation trend.
Here are what markets are expecting for those four figures:
- September PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen 0.3%, unchanged since August
- YOY PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen 2.9%, unchanged since August
- September core PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen 0.2%, unchanged since August
- YOY core PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen 2.8%, slightly faster than August's 2.7%
Today's other report that might affect mortgage rates is the initial reading of consumer sentiment in December. Markets expect that to improve slightly to 52.0 from November's 51.0.
Normally, lower-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates lower, while higher-than-expected figures usually send them upward.
