The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.26% yesterday, an increase of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.39%, up by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.58% yesterday, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.81%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved yesterday, which was a relief after Monday's moderate rise. However, there are some potentially important economic reports on this week's schedule, starting today.
So, we may see further and sharper movements in mortgage rates in the coming days. Whether the reports send those rates higher or lower will depend on the figures they contain. And there's a chance the good and bad news will cancel each other out, leaving rates largely unchanged.
Employment and inflation front of minds
Markets are closely focused on employment and inflation data. That's partly because the Federal Reserve will also be focused on those when it decides next week whether to cut general interest rates or leave them where they are.
Investors in futures remain convinced that the Fed will make a small cut a week from today, according to the CME FedWatch tool. But economic data between now and then could conceivably change their minds.
It's worth noting that the job openings and labor turnover survey (JOLTS) for October is now due for publication next Tuesday, just as the Fed starts its two-day rate-setting meeting. This will be the freshest official employment data we'll have seen for months, thanks to the government shutdown. And markets and the Fed may pay it special attention.
Scroll on down for details of today's scheduled reports.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.26% | 6.29% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.39% | 5.44% | +0.01% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.58% | 6.79% | +0.02% | +-0% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.8% | +0% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.61% | 5.75% | -0.03% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.81% | 6.83% | +0.02% | +0.06% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.09% | -0.01% | -0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.38% | +0% | +0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.42% | +0.01% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.56% | 6.77% | +0.02% | +0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.68% | 5.82% | +-0% | -0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.06% | 6.09% | +0.02% | -0.38% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
This week
In its preview of this week, Comerica Bank's economics team says
"The ISM PMI [purchasing managers' index] surveys are expected to show the manufacturing sector in continued contraction, while the services sector expands at a slower pace. Industrial production probably held steady while capacity utilization eased, in line with softer conditions in manufacturing. Personal incomes likely rose modestly in the delayed September release, while spending probably took a breather after rising robustly in August. Headline and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Indices are forecast to have risen moderately, holding near 3% in annual terms. Consumer sentiment likely brightened in early December after the end of the government shutdown, while short-and long-term inflation expectations remained elevated."
Mortgage rates today
There are five economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Those relating to employment (the ADP jobs report) and inflation (the import price index (IPI)) are most likely to affect mortgage rates. The IPI is for September, and therefore somewhat stale, but it could still make an impact.
However, there are also a couple of purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the services sector due this morning. The one from the Institute for Supply Management tends to be the more influential. The fifth report is another stale one, this time for industrial production, and we reckon it's the least likely to move mortgage rates.
Here are today's five reports, along with market expectations (often different from Comerica's, above) for each:
- November ADP employment report — Markets expect 40,000 new private-sector jobs to have been created that month, slightly down from 42,000 in October
- September IPI — Markets expect those prices to have risen by 0.1% that month, more slowly than August's 0.3%
- September industrial production — Markets expect production to have risen by 0.1% that month, unchanged from August
- November services PMI from the ISM — Markets expect the index to have been 55.0 that month, unchanged from October
- November services PMI from S&P Global — Markets expect the index to have been 52.5% that month, unchanged from October
Normally, worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower, while better-than-expected figures usually send
them upward.
