The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.2% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.31%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.47% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.74%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
On Black Friday, mortgage rates were either unchanged or edged a little lower, depending on whose figures you believe. And we're not anticipating much movement today, at least from scheduled influences.That's good news because those rates are currently close to annual lows and not far off three-year ones.
Of course, you can never rule out the unexpected causing upsets in markets. Recently, those surprises have mostly come in the shape of economically sensitive government announcements. They and their impacts are, of course, wholly unpredictable.
Fed rate-setting decision imminent
Next Wednesday, Dec. 10, the Federal Reserve is due to announce its decision on whether to cut or hold general interest rates steady. And we might see some volatility in markets and mortgage rates between now and then.Normally, we'd be excited about a speech that Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver at 8 p.m. Eastern this evening. His words can typically cause sharp movements in mortgage rates.
However, Powell's speech this evening is unlikely to have any effect. That's because the Fed is currently in a "blackout period."
"Federal Reserve policy limits the extent to which FOMC participants and staff can speak publicly or grant interviews during Federal Reserve
blackout periods, which begin the second Saturday preceding a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) [the Fed's rate-setting body] meeting and end the Thursday following a meeting unless otherwise noted," explains the Fed.
In other words, Powell must remain schtum when it comes to potentially market-moving remarks about "monetary" (rates) policy.
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Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.2% | 6.23% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.31% | 5.36% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.47% | 6.69% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.61% | 5.75% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.5% | 5.65% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.74% | 6.75% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.04% | +0% | -0.35% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.24% | 6.27% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.28% | 5.33% | +0% | -0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.44% | 6.66% | +0% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.65% | 5.79% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6% | 6.03% | +0% | -0.44% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning employment, inflation, tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
With the government reopening, we can anticipate the publication of official reports to slowly return to normal. Had the shutdown been brief, we could have expected a flood of official economic reports on reopening. But the length of the hiatus means that it is no longer the case. Data won't have been collected — let alone compiled and prepared for publication — during the shutdown. So, delayed or even canceled reports are inevitable.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. They're both November purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector.
One is published by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and the other by S&P Global. The ISM one tends to be more influential.
PMIs measure activity in the procurement departments of organizations, so the indices can be useful guides to future productivity. However, manufacturing ones are less important than they once were, and today's PMIs may not move mortgage rates far. We're due ones for the more important services sector on Wednesday.
MarketWatch is yet to publish market expectations (aka analysts' consensus forecasts) for today's PMIs. So, we can't tell you what to look out for.
Normally, worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower, while better-than-expected figures usually send
them upward. But we don't currently know what's expected.
