The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.43% today, an increase of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.79%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.63%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates have fallen appreciably over the last week, and Mortgage News Daily reckons they'd dropped to 6.50% when the market closed yesterday afternoon. Our own source, ICanBuy, reckons they're even lower, at 6.422%. That difference is likely down to surveying different lenders and using different methodologies. Both figures relate to applications from top-tier (highly qualified) borrowers applying for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages.
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac yesterday put the same rate at 6.56%. However, it provides a weekly average, meaning it's usually different from daily averages each Thursday when it publishes its data.
“Mortgage rates are at a 10-month low,” said Sam Khater, Freddie’s chief economist. “Purchase demand continues to rise on the back of lower rates and solid economic growth. Though many potential homebuyers still face affordability challenges, consistently lower rates may provide them with the impetus to enter the market.”
Inflation report
This morning's inflation report has the potential to change all that, though that doesn't mean it necessarily will. It's the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index. That may not be as famous as the consumer price index (CPI), but it measures the same data more accurately. And it's the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation, which isn't nothing.
If this morning's indices come in appreciably lower than markets expect, that could send mortgage rates tumbling. But if they are somewhat higher than expected, that could be very bad news for those rates. As-forecast figures could leave mortgage rates unchanged.
Scroll on down to discover market expectations for the report.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.43% | 6.47% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.45% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 7% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.02% | +0.04% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.76% | 5.91% | +0.04% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.63% | 6.65% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.47% | 6.5% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.38% | 5.43% | -0.01% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.76% | 6.96% | +0.03% | -0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.04% | +0.04% | -0.19% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.53% | +0.03% | -0.28% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here is what the economics team at Comerica Bank is expecting from the rest of today's important report:
"The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—likely rose modestly on soft food and gasoline prices, while the core PCE index, which excludes those items, likely accelerated."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows five economic reports due. However, the inflation one is likely to overshadow the others.
Like all price indices, the PCE price index has four headline figures. Two will cover the reporting month (July), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) numbers, which measure price changes between Aug. 1, 2024, and Jul. 31, 2025.
Each reporting period has two elements. The normal PCE index shows price changes for all items in the survey. The "core" PCE index covers the same things but excludes energy and food prices. By excluding those two especially volatile expenditures, the underlying direction of prices is revealed.
Here, according to MarketWatch, are what markets are expecting from the four main figures alongside their June numbers:
- July PCE index: Markets expect a 0.2% rise, slower than June's 0.3%
- YOY PCE index: Markets expect a 2.6% rise, unchanged from June
- July core PCE index: Markets expect a 0.3% rise, unchanged from June
- YOY core PVE index: Markets expect a 2.9% rise, faster than June's 2.8%
