The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.43% today, a decrease of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.4%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.76%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.64%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
MarketWatch says the Wells Fargo Investment Institute published a note on Tuesday that contained a sobering warning about a widely anticipated cut in general interest rates by the Federal Reserve on Sep. 17:
"If the Fed decides to lower its policy rate next month, as the market has been expecting, 'short-term rates on adjustable-rate mortgages [ARMs] and home-equity lines of credit [HELOCs] should go lower,' Wells Fargo said in a note Tuesday. But, it added, 'long-term mortgage rates are more closely tied to the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield, which we view as biased higher.'
"Concerns over tariffs adding to inflation have 'muted the downward movement in long-term yields,' according to the note. Meanwhile, 'term risk premia in long-term yields could continue to move higher given the amount of U.S. debt outstanding, the anticipated U.S. Treasury issuance and the projected increase in the fiscal deficit,' Wells Fargo wrote."
In other words, Wells Fargo reckons a Fed rate cut will likely have a much smaller effect on mortgage rates than many of us hope. And it's certainly true that rates on ARMs and HELOCs won't move before a Fed announcement. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, rarely budge in response to a widely anticipated Fed rate cut.
However, that's not because mortgage rates aren't affected by Fed cuts. It's just that investors price in such cuts well before they're announced. So, those rates change on announcement day only if the cut is bigger or smaller than expected.
Many economists agree that Fed cuts more directly affect short-term rates than longer-term ones, such as for mortgages. But the extent of the difference is very hard to measure.
One thing seems highly likely: If tariffs do fuel inflation, and federal debt and deficits do push up all borrowing costs, both mortgage rates and Fed-related rates will soon be moving higher again. Let's hope that doesn't happen.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.43% | 6.46% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | -0.03% | -0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.76% | 6.97% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.83% | 5.98% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.72% | 5.86% | +0.01% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.64% | 6.66% | -0.02% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.46% | 6.49% | +0.04% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.52% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.4% | 5.44% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.73% | 6.94% | -0.01% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.86% | 6% | -0.01% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.48% | 6.5% | -0.05% | -0.37% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here is what the economics team at Comerica Bank is expecting from the rest of this week's reports:
"GDP in the second quarter of 2025 will probably be revised higher in the second estimate due to upward revisions to consumer spending. Personal incomes and spending are forecast to have risen at a solid pace in July. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—likely rose modestly on soft food and gasoline prices, while the core PCE index, which excludes those items, likely accelerated."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows three economic reports due:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 23 — Markets expect 230,000 claims, slightly better than the previous week's 235,000
- Second estimate of second quarter gross domestic product (GDP) — 3.1% expected, up from a 3.0% first estimate
- July pending home sales — A 0.3% rise is expected, much better than June's -0.8%
Markets have already priced into mortgage rates the expected figures. Better-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates higher, while worse-than-expected ones usually drag those rates lower.
Stand by for tomorrow's inflation report, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of price movements. As Wells Fargo suggested, inflation is a hot topic at the moment, meaning data could impact mortgage rates hard — for better or worse.
