The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.45% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.43%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.77%, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.66%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved yesterday despite some early excitement in markets. The excitement that soon petered out was caused by an attempt to fire Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve board of governors.
We wrote yesterday, "We will have to see how investors react to the news to gauge its likely impact on markets and mortgage rates." And, having waited, we've seen that markets have largely shrugged off the news.
Barron's isn't convinced investors have made the right call. "[Markets' response yesterday] doesn’t mean investors aren’t growing increasingly concerned over [the president's] erosion of Fed independence or the blurring of lines between government and enterprise that have characterized his second term in office.
"Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer at One Point BFG Wealth Partners, said that even with evidence that suggests Cook may have made false mortgage statements, 'she was likely targeted in order to remake the Fed with people who will be most inclined to cut interest rates,'" said Barron's.
The Wall Street Journal was equally cautious: "[The president's] firing of Lisa Cook shows he wants to put monetary policy under his personal control. He may succeed, but the country will live to regret it," wrote the paper's editorial board.
Whatever the rights and wrongs of the case, Cook shows no signs of going quietly. And predictions of a fierce and prolonged legal battle are widespread.
India tariffs at 50%
Overnight, The New York Times reported: "The 50 percent rate, half of which is punishment for India’s buying Russian oil, is expected to damage many Indian exporters that collectively employ millions of people. The move could rupture America’s expanding economic relationship with India, where two-thirds of the largest U.S. corporations have offshore operations. The tariff also undermines the stability of billions of dollars of foreign investment in India’s stock market, the world’s fourth largest."
The immediate effect is much worse for India than for America. However, there is a danger for us, too.
The 50% rate is a doubling of the 25% base rate and is a punishment for continuing to purchase Russian oil. If India responds by stopping buying that oil, it would create more demand in the mainstream oil market, sending global prices higher. In other words, there's a real possibility of higher gas prices at American pumps, and higher prices for all petroleum products. That would, of course, fuel domestic inflation here.
Again, like yesterday, we must wait to see how markets react to this new threat.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.45% | 6.48% | +-0% | -0.28% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.48% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.98% | -0.02% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 6% | +-0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.71% | 5.85% | -0.01% | -0.36% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.66% | 6.68% | +0% | -0.27% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.42% | 6.46% | -0.01% | -0.31% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | -0.01% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.48% | +-0% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.74% | 6.94% | -0.02% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.01% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.52% | 6.55% | -0.01% | -0.32% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here is what the economics team at Comerica Bank is expecting from the rest of this week's reports:
"GDP in the second quarter of 2025 will probably be revised higher in the second estimate due to upward revisions to consumer spending. Personal incomes and spending are forecast to have risen at a solid pace in July. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge—likely rose modestly on soft food and gasoline prices, while the core PCE index, which excludes those items, likely accelerated."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar shows no economic reports due. Three are scheduled for tomorrow, one of which is more likely to affect mortgage rates than the others. That's the second reading of the second quarter's gross domestic product.
But this week's star report will probably be Friday's inflation report, which is the Fed's favorite gauge of price movements.
