The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.57% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.58%, up by 0.08%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.86% yesterday, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.7%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates reached their highest level since August 1 yesterday, according to Mortgage News Daily's archive. The jobs report on the first day of the month triggered a significant fall. But, for the last 10 days or so, those rates have been creeping back higher.
The Federal Reserve will likely determine the direction they take for the rest of this week. Right now, markets are expecting the Fed to make a quarter-point cut to general interest rates when its rate-setting body (the Federal Open Market Committee or FOMC) next meets on September 17.
The CME FedWatch tool puts the probability of such a cut, based on investors' wagers, at 86.1%. Investors trade ahead of events, meaning that the cut is already baked into markets and mortgage rates today.
If the probability diminishes, that could send mortgage rates higher. If it increases or a bigger cut looks possible, those rates could fall.
This week, the most likely cause of a change in the probability of a rate cut is the Fed. This afternoon, at 2 p.m. Eastern, it will release the minutes of the last meeting of the FOMC.
And Wall Street will pore over every word, searching for clues about whether a September 17 rate cut is more or less likely than investors currently believe.
Powell at Jackson Hole on Friday
In recent days, financial media have been talking up the possible importance of a speech Fed Chair Jerome Powell is due to deliver at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. As we discussed yesterday, he might view this speech, his last at Jackson Hole before he retires in May, as his swan song: his opportunity to define his legacy.
If he does, he could strike a defiant tone, suggesting a rate cut next month is far from certain. He might also hit back at politicians' recent attempts to undermine the independence of the Fed, which he and many others regard as a valuable component in promoting America's prosperity. That could drive mortgage rates higher.
But, as we wrote yesterday, "Of course, this is all speculation. Powell's defining characteristics have been his caution, conservative communications, and determination to be apolitical. So, we rank the chances of his letting rip as small. But we wouldn't rule anything out."Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.57% | 6.6% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.63% | +0.08% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.86% | 7.06% | +0.05% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.95% | 6.1% | +0.04% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.83% | 5.98% | +0.05% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.7% | 6.72% | +0.01% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.54% | 6.58% | -0.04% | -0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.62% | 6.64% | +0.03% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.62% | +0.06% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.83% | 7.03% | +0.05% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.98% | 6.12% | +0.04% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.68% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's the Comerica Bank's economics team's take on what to expect for the rest of this week:
"The Fed is back in focus this week. After July’s split FOMC decision, markets are anxious to see how the meeting’s minutes describe FOMC
members’ views about the September meeting. On Friday, Chair Powell could explain how he plans to shape the meeting’s decision-making in his speech in Jackson Hole. S&P Global’s PMIs are anticipated to show a further contraction in manufacturing and a slowdown in services
in the August flash estimates."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains no economic reports. So, if mortgage rates move at all, it will likely be down to this afternoon's FOMC minutes or some other piece of economically sensitive news.
