The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.53% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.51%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.81% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.69%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely budged again yesterday. Typically, it takes a seriously important inflation or employment report to move them far. Recently, Federal Reserve and tariff news items have also had the capability of creating appreciable movements.
We're not due an important economic report before next Friday, when the Fed's favorite gauge of inflation is published. But there are two occasions this week when the Fed itself could cause waves.
The first is Wednesday, when the central bank releases the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We covered yesterday the possible implications of that and the second event, scheduled for Friday.
That second event is a speech by Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. Last Friday, Barron's stressed the potential for Powell to create a market-moving stir in an article with the title, "Powell’s Last Stand: His Legacy and the Fed’s Independence Are on the Line at Jackson Hole."
The article suggested this could see him delivering "what may be the defining speech of his career." And it continued, "Powell
may see Jackson Hole as his last or, at least, his best chance to cement his legacy and make the case for the central bank’s independence."
Of course, this is all speculation. Powell's defining characteristics have been his caution, conservative communications, and determination to be apolitical. So, we rank the chances of his letting rip as small. But we wouldn't rule anything out.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.56% | +0.02% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 7.02% | +-0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | -0.01% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.93% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.71% | +0% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.58% | 6.62% | +0.01% | -0.23% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.59% | 6.61% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.56% | +0.02% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | +-0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.94% | 6.08% | -0.01% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0.03% | -0.31% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's the Comerica Bank's economics team's take on what to expect this week:
"The Fed is back in focus this week. After July’s split FOMC decision, markets are anxious to see how the meeting’s minutes describe FOMC
members’ views about the September meeting. On Friday, Chair Powell could explain how he plans to shape the meeting’s decision-making in his speech in Jackson Hole. Housing starts and building permit issuance probably declined in July, while existing home sales likely rose after a
big slump in the prior month. S&P Global’s PMIs are anticipated to show a further contraction in manufacturing and a slowdown in services
in the August flash estimates."
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar has two economic reports. They both relate to home construction in July and are:
- Housing starts — Expected to inch lower to an annualized 1.29 million from June's 1.32 million
- Building permits — Also expected to inch lower to an annualized 1.39 million from June's 1.4 million
Generally speaking, mortgage rates tend to move downward in response to worse-than-expected economic news and upward when the data are better than expected. However, real estate-related reports rarely have much impact on mortgage rates.
