The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.51% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.49%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.81% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.69%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates are beginning this morning almost exactly where they stood first thing last Monday morning. It's not that they were unchanged over the last seven days. It's just that the rises and falls pretty much canceled each other out.
There's very little in the way of economic reports that are likely to move mortgage rates this week. Most of them concern the housing market, which (perhaps ironically) rarely affects mortgage rates.
True, Thursday brings a couple of "flash" (preliminary and subject to change) August purchasing managers' indices (PMIs). PMIs certainly can shift mortgage rates because they reveal the level of activity in organizations' procurement departments.
But both this week's are from S&P Global, and they are far less influential than ones from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). MarketWatch hasn't even bothered to poll analysts for a consensus forecast for these S&P PMIs.
Other drivers of mortgage rates
FOMC minutes
The Federal Reserve might drive some changes in mortgage rates. It's scheduled to publish the minutes of the last meeting of its rate-setting body on Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern. That's formally known as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Sometimes, these minutes provide fresh insights into the debates, politics and personalities of FOMC members, and provide extra information that can help markets deduce when and how far general interest rates might change in the future. So, investors study them carefully.
Jackson Hole
On Thursday, the Fed is due to begin this summer's three-day Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole. The official website says:
"The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, is one of the longest-standing central banking conferences in the world. The event brings together economists, financial market participants, academics, U.S. government
representatives, and news media to discuss long-term policy issues of mutual concern."
Reuters reports, "The Wyoming resort plays host to the annual central bankers' schmoozefest and will include Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell among its attendees.
"Jackson Hole has the potential to be disruptive. Any hint from Powell that a September rate cut isn't happening and markets could sell off hard, while an overly upbeat tone from the Fed chair may feed more euphoria. 'And bull markets die in euphoria,' says Steve Sosnick, strategist at trading firm IBKR."
The market that largely determines mortgage rates has already priced in a rate cut. So, were Powell to rule one out, those rates would likely rise.
Both the FOMC minutes and the Jackson Hole symposium could turn out to be non-events. But if anything's going to move mortgage rates significantly this week, it's probably going to be one of them.
That assumes an absence of other economically sensitive news. More headlines about tariffs or deficits or peace deals could easily influence Wall Street as much as the Fed might, depending on what they say.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.51% | 6.54% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.49% | 5.54% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 7.02% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.92% | 6.06% | +0% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.69% | 6.71% | +0% | -0.26% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.57% | 6.61% | +0% | -0.24% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.57% | 6.6% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.49% | 5.54% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | +0% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.95% | 6.09% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.57% | 6.6% | +0% | -0.34% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
Today's MarketWatch economic calendar contains just one report. It's the August home builder confidence index. Markets expect it to improve very slightly to 34 from 33 in July.
Generally speaking, mortgage rates tend to move downward in response to worse-than-expected economic news and upward when the data are better than expected. But this index rarely has a perceptible effect.
