The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.56% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.51%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.83% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.7%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday's official data for the consumer price index (CPI) in July failed to budge mortgage rates. The report contained good and bad news, and different markets and commentators responded (or didn't respond) in different ways.
"A gauge of underlying inflation in July showed prices increasing at the fastest annual pace in five months, a sign that businesses are passing
along tariff-related costs to customers," reported The New York Times.
However, The Wall Street Journal took a different line: "Inflation accelerated to a 3.1% annual rate in July, excluding volatile food and energy costs, up from 2.9% the previous month. That was slightly ahead of estimates from economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. Much of the increase was driven by services, while goods inflation was more subdued, showing no major impact from tariffs."
Comerica Bank said:
- CPI rose slightly less than expected in July, but core CPI was a little hotter than expected.
- Tariffs raised inflation in household furnishings and auto parts, but the effect is small so far.
- The report makes the Fed slightly less likely to cut the target rate in September, since July’s hotter-than-expected core inflation was from
sticky service prices rather than tariff-affected goods.
Whomever you believe, markets were relieved the report wasn't worse than it was.
Producer price index due tomorrow
The producer price index (PPI) is less well known and usually less influential than the CPI. However, we expect tomorrow's July PPI to attract more attention than normal when it lands.
PPIs measure price changes earlier in the supply chain than CPIs. And what happens to factory-gate and wholesale prices this month is likely to show up in future CPIs when goods and services reach consumers in retail environments.
With many economists still expecting higher prices as a result of tariffs, investors will be checking to see whether there's any sign of inflation building in the pre-retail phases of the supply chain.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | +0% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.56% | +0% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.83% | 7.03% | -0.01% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.83% | 5.97% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.7% | 6.72% | -0.02% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0% | -0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0.01% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.52% | 5.56% | +0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 7% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.93% | 6.07% | -0.02% | -0.17% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0% | -0.21% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's the Comerica Bank economics team's take on what to expect from this week's main economic reports:
"Consumer and producer price indexes are forecasted to rise modestly in their July releases on stable energy prices. Core consumer prices likely rose faster than in June due to tariff pass-through. Inflation is expected to pick up slightly in year-over-year terms, which most Fed policymakers will see as a pebble on the scales against an interest rate cut at the September meeting.
"Retail sales likely rose solidly on higher vehicle sales and nonstore retail sales (primarily e-commerce). ... The University of Michigan’s survey of households will probably show new tariffs weighed on consumer sentiment again in August. The survey will likely show another increase in inflation expectations, particularly for the near-term (year-ahead period)."
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
Tomorrow, we're due the July PPI and initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 9. We'll brief you on both those early tomorrow morning, hours before they're published.
Friday's crowded schedule includes retail sales in July and an initial reading of August's consumer sentiment.
