The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.56% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.51%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.84% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.72%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday, we provided a fairly detailed explanation of why this morning's consumer price index (CPI) could prove this week's (and maybe this month's) most consequential report for mortgage rates. Briefly, investors are worried that tariffs will bring higher inflation and will be scanning today's data for signs that it's beginning to happen.
Yesterday, The Wall Street Journal confirmed our analysis: "The consumer-price index is due out on Tuesday morning, offering the
latest insight into how ... tariff policies are feeding into price pressures," it said.
In a different article, also published yesterday, the Journal explained why it's taking so long for tariffs to push consumer prices higher:
"While foreign companies that ship goods stateside have reduced prices somewhat in response to [new] tariffs, they shouldered just 14% of total costs through June, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank estimates that U.S. firms picked up most of the multibillion-dollar monthly tab.
"Economists believe that will change as additional taxes on steel, aluminum and other imported goods take hold. By October, Goldman Sachs projects U.S. consumers will pay about two-thirds of the cost of tariffs that have been in place for four months."
You can see why Wall Street is so eager to know how any price increases were hitting consumers in July. Any spike in inflation will likely reduce retail spending and lower companies' profits.
As we reported yesterday, "Consumer expenditures account for approximately two-thirds of U.S. economic activity," according to U.S. Bank. That statistic also explains why Friday's retail sales data for July is almost as keenly anticipated.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.56% | 6.59% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.56% | +-0% | -0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.84% | 7.05% | -0.02% | -0.1% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.93% | 6.07% | -0.02% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.83% | 5.97% | +-0% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.72% | 6.74% | +0.01% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.59% | 6.62% | +0.08% | -0.13% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.6% | 6.62% | -0.02% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.56% | +-0% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 7.02% | -0.02% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.95% | 6.09% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.6% | 6.63% | +0.04% | -0.22% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's the Comerica Bank economics team's take on what to expect from this week's main economic reports:
"Consumer and producer price indexes are forecasted to rise modestly in their July releases on stable energy prices. Core consumer prices likely rose faster than in June due to tariff pass-through. Inflation is expected to pick up slightly in year-over-year terms, which most Fed policymakers will see as a pebble on the scales against an interest rate cut at the September meeting.
"Retail sales likely rose solidly on higher vehicle sales and nonstore retail sales (primarily e-commerce). ... The University of Michigan’s survey of households will probably show new tariffs weighed on consumer sentiment again in August. The survey will likely show another increase in inflation expectations, particularly for the near-term (year-ahead period)."
Mortgage rates today
July's consumer price index (CPI) is by far the most important report on today's schedule.
Like all price indices, the CPI is broken down into four headline figures. Two cover the reported month (July) and two more are year-over-year (YOY) numbers (Aug. 1, 2024 - July 31, 2025).
One for each period is the straight CPI and covers all items in the survey. The other is "core" CPI, which is the same but excludes food and energy prices. That's because those are often highly volatile, and removing them exposes the underlying inflation trend.
The following shows what markets are expecting for each component, according to the MarketWatch economic calendar:
- July CPI — Markets expecting a 0.2% rise, slightly slower than June's 0.3%
- July core CPI — Markets expecting a 0.3% rise, slightly faster than June's 0.2%
- YOY CPI — Markets expecting a 2.8% rise, slightly faster than June's 2.7%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expecting a 3.1% rise, faster than June's 2.9%
Market expectations are key because investors have already traded ahead of the report based on those forecasts. Higher-than-expected numbers tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. On-forecast figures typically leave those rates effectively unchanged. Sometimes, analysts find reason for concern or celebration when they dig deeper into the report's detailed data that support the headline numbers.
Also today, we're expecting the small business optimism index from the National Federation of Independent Business. We'll be surprised if this isn't overshadowed by the CPI, but, for the record, markets are expecting a small improvement: 99.0 in July compared with 98.6 in June.
There are no reports on tomorrow's calendar.
