The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.52% yesterday, a decrease of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.5%, down by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.81% yesterday, having dropped by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.68%, reflecting a decrease of 0.14%.
The bigger picture
For a second consecutive day, mortgage rates barely moved yesterday. There were no economic reports that day.
Tariffs
Often, days with no reports leave mortgage rates virtually unchanged. But yesterday brought other news that might have affected those rates, but didn't. For example, a very high tariff rate of 50% was announced on imports from India, and an even steeper 100% on semiconductors coming into the U.S., although the latter comes with exceptions for companies investing heavily in America.
The flurry of announcements occurred because the scores of new tariff rates unveiled last week came into effect just after midnight this morning. Markets have known this is coming for a week, and may not react. However, there could be some disappointment that more last-minute deals haven't been closed or that the start date hasn't been postponed.
Bonds in unknown territory
Meanwhile, markets were eyeing an unprecedented U.S. Treasury auction scheduled for today. For the first time, the government plans to borrow $180 billion on a single day by selling short-term notes, which are a type of bond.
The Treasury says it will today auction $100 billion in 4-week notes and another $80 billion in 8-week ones. So, in four or eight weeks, it will have to repay that debt, with interest, and then sell another similar amount to maintain its cash reserves.
This is a highly unusual strategy driven by the government's unwillingness to borrow over the long term at current high rates. All bonds have fixed rates.
Wall Street isn't expecting any problems with today's auctions, partly because of high demand from cryptocurrency providers. The "so-called Genius Act requires stablecoin issuers to back their tokens with assets such as Treasury bills," says Barron's.
However, MarketWatch warns, "While observers expect this sale to go smoothly, a continued reliance on short-term bill auctions is not without risk. The issue is that such auctions might eventually expose the government to sharply higher financing costs for any number of uncontrollable reasons." In other words, if bond yields (fixed interest rates) suddenly shoot higher, the government could be stuck having to pay much more for its debt.
What does all this have to do with mortgage rates? Well, those are largely determined by the yield on a type of bond called a mortgage-backed security (MBS). And MBS yields often shadow those of 10-year Treasury notes.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.52% | 6.55% | -0.03% | -0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.5% | 5.54% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.81% | 7.01% | -0.02% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.89% | 6.03% | -0.02% | -0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.93% | +-0% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.68% | 6.71% | -0.14% | -0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.51% | 6.55% | -0.02% | -0.2% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.61% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.5% | 5.55% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | -0.03% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.93% | 6.07% | -0.03% | -0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.58% | 6.61% | +-0% | -0.22% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning tariffs and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Here's Comerica Bank's economics team's take on what's likely to happen over the rest of this week:
"The economic calendar is light this week. Productivity likely rebounded to growth in the second quarter, and unit labor cost increases slowed. Consumer credit likely rose at a modest pace for the second successive month in June."
Mortgage rates today
There are five reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar:
Tomorrow's main reports, with market expectations, are:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Aug. 2. — 221,000 expected, up from the previous week's 218,000
- Productivity in the second quarter of this year (Q2/25) — 1.9% growth is expected, greatly improved on the -1.58% contraction in the first quarter
- Q2/25 unit-labor costs — 1.36% expected, lower than 6.6% in the first quarter
- June wholesale inventories — No forecast
- June consumer credit — No forecast
Higher-than-expected actual figures tend to push mortgage rates upward, while lower-than-expected ones often pull them downward. On-forecast numbers frequently leave those rates unchanged. Initial jobless claims are an exception and can have the opposite effect from the others.
None of today's reports usually has much impact on mortgage rates. In theory, any report can affect those rates if it contains sufficiently shocking data. But, in practice, that occurs very rarely.
No economic reports are scheduled for tomorrow.
