The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.41% yesterday, an increase of 0.03% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.57%, up by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.71% yesterday, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.67%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
The futures price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, climbed to $121.68 a barrel yesterday evening, up from $111.22 the previous night. Average gas prices nationwide rose to $4.229 for regular, up from $3.161 a year ago, according to the AAA.
Bond markets, one of which determines mortgage rates, responded with higher yields. It's almost as if Wall Street has suddenly realized that disruption in the Middle East could last a long time, putting further pressure on the inflation rate at home.
Speaking of which, one of today's two blockbuster reports is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation. Consumer prices are expected to have risen year-over-year by 3.5% in March, with some forecasting something closer to 4%. That's steep, and won't help mortgage rates if this morning's actual number is above 3.5%.
The other big report today is the first reading of gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter of this year.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.03% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +0.04% | -0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.71% | 6.92% | -0.01% | -0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.96% | +0% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.82% | 5.97% | +-0% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.67% | 6.68% | +0.02% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.96% | 6% | -0.01% | -0.17% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.46% | 6.49% | +0.02% | -0.12% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.55% | 5.6% | +0.05% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.7% | 6.91% | -0.01% | -0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.95% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.09% | +0.05% | -0.07% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank revealed its expectations for this week:
"The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this Wednesday at the final decision of Chair Jerome Powell’s term. The post-meeting press conference will probably focus on Powell’s future and legacy. Will he retire, now that the Justice Department has announced it is dropping the probe into his conduct as Chair? Powell said after the Fed’s March decision that he has 'no intention of leaving the Board until the investigation is well and truly over,' and Senator Thom Tillis blocked the confirmation of Powell’s successor until he is satisfied the probe is resolved. Powell’s term as governor runs on a separate timeline from his term as Chair and extends into early 2028, so he could continue serving as acting Chair until President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed — and stay on as a governor even longer if he believes it is necessary to protect the Fed’s independence.
"Real GDP likely rose moderately in the first quarter, supported by a big rebound in government spending after last year’s government shutdown ended. AI likely continued to fuel robust growth in fixed investment in computing equipment, software, and research and development in the quarter. Consumer spending growth was likely moderate as larger tax refunds offset the headwind from higher gas prices. The personal income and outlays report for the month of March, also due this week, will likely show headline PCE inflation drifting up toward 4% on higher energy prices, while core PCE inflation holds closer to 3%."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two major and several minor economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar.
The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index is likely to be the most influential. Like most price indices, it contains four headline numbers.
Two of those numbers are monthly figures for March, and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) ones, covering Apr. 1, 2025, to Mar. 31, 2026. One for each period tracks all prices in the survey, and the other, called "core" PCE, monitors all prices except those for energy and food.
Given that the big rises in prices in March are for energy, especially gas and diesel, markets expect core readings to show more moderate changes than those for raw PCE.
Here are today's market expectations for the four main elements of the March PCE price index:
- March PCE — Markets expect a 0.7% increase in all consumer prices, following a 0.4% rise in February
- March YOY PCE — Markets expect a 3.5% increase in all consumer prices over the past year, up from 2.8% in February
- March core PCE — Markets expect a 0.3% increase in core consumer prices, following a 0.4% rise in February
- March YOY core PCE — Markets expect a 3.2% increase in core consumer prices over the past year, up from 3.0% in February
Another inflation indicator out this morning is the employment cost index for the first quarter of 2026. That's expected to rise by 0.9%, up from 0.7% in the last quarter of 2025.
Investors in bond markets hate inflation because it eats into the value of their fixed incomes. So, for mortgage rates, the lower the rate of price rises, the better.
Today's key non-inflation report is the first reading (of three) of GDP during the first quarter of 2026. Markets expect this to grow by 2.2%, much faster than the 0.5% seen in the previous quarter.
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
We doubt other economic reports scheduled for this morning will noticeably affect mortgage rates.
Recently, bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) have been fixated on events in the Middle East. And even some important economic reports have had muted impacts.
