The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.37% yesterday, an increase of 0.06% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.54%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.72% yesterday, having risen by 0.05. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.65%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates moved moderately upward yesterday, reaching their highest level since Apr. 7, the day a ceasefire with Iran was first announced. Markets are concerned that disruption in the Middle East could continue for longer than expected. And the futures price of Brent crude, the global benchmark for oil prices, stood at $111.22 last night, a recent high.
Events in the Middle East are already fueling inflation at home. And that's likely to mean the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady at its rate-setting body's meeting today. The CME FedWatch tool was still putting the chances of a no-change announcement at 100% last night.
Often, the post-meeting news conferences hosted by Fed Chair Jerome Powell affect mortgage rates. But we doubt this afternoon's will because it's likely to be his last before he retires next month. It's looking increasingly likely that the U.S. Senate will soon confirm Kevin Warsh's nomination as Powell's successor.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.4% | +0.06% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.54% | 5.58% | +0.05% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.72% | 6.93% | +0.05% | -0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.95% | +0.01% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.82% | 5.97% | +0.12% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.65% | 6.66% | +0.04% | -0.24% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.97% | 6.01% | +0.08% | -0.14% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0.05% | -0.25% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.5% | 5.55% | +0.04% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.71% | 6.92% | +0.05% | -0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | +-0% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.04% | -0.01% | -0.18% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank revealed its expectations for this week:
"The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this Wednesday at the final decision of Chair Jerome Powell’s term. The post-meeting press conference will probably focus on Powell’s future and legacy. Will he retire, now that the Justice Department has announced it is dropping the probe into his conduct as Chair? Powell said after the Fed’s March decision that he has 'no intention of leaving the Board until the investigation is well and truly over,' and Senator Thom Tillis blocked the confirmation of Powell’s successor until he is satisfied the probe is resolved. Powell’s term as governor runs on a separate timeline from his term as Chair and extends into early 2028, so he could continue serving as acting Chair until President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed — and stay on as a governor even longer if he believes it is necessary to protect the Fed’s independence.
"Real GDP likely rose moderately in the first quarter, supported by a big rebound in government spending after last year’s government shutdown ended. AI likely continued to fuel robust growth in fixed investment in computing equipment, software, and research and development in the quarter. Consumer spending growth was likely moderate as larger tax refunds offset the headwind from higher gas prices. The personal income and outlays report for the month of March, also due this week, will likely show headline PCE inflation drifting up toward 4% on higher energy prices, while core PCE inflation holds closer to 3%."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are several economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But we doubt any of them will noticeably affect mortgage rates as markets focus on the Middle East and the Fed.
Housing starts and building permits data will be announced for both February and March this morning. Last year's government shutdown delayed the former.
Here are today's main reports together with market expectations:
- March durable goods orders — Markets expect 0.2% growth, following a contraction of -1.4% in February
- March housing starts — Markets expect 1.40 million (annualized), down from January's 1.49 million
- March building permits — Markets expect 1.39 million (annualized), up from January's 1.38 million
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Recently, bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) have been fixated on events in the Middle East. And even some important economic reports have had muted impacts.
Later this week
This week brings several potentially important reports and events, with the remaining ones being:
- Tomorrow — The Fed's favorite gauge of inflation (the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index), plus the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter
- Friday — Two April purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector in March
