The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.31% yesterday, a decrease of 0.04% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.48%, down by 0.04%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.67% yesterday, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.6%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates continue to move within a tight range. Recently, we've used metaphors like Groundhog Day, becalmed, and deer-in-the-headlights to convey just how limited their range of movement is.
Some weeks ago, we suggested that sharp movements are unlikely until there's a decisive de-escalation or re-escalation of tensions in the Middle East. And we stand by that.
In the meantime, neither fleeting news stories about ceasefires, blockades and peace talks nor important economic reports are having much impact on mortgage rates. So, we doubt that today's consumer confidence index will have a significant effect, almost regardless of the data it reveals.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.34% | -0.04% | -0.31% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.53% | -0.04% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.67% | 6.88% | -0.03% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | -0.03% | -0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.85% | +-0% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.6% | 6.62% | -0.04% | -0.28% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.89% | 5.93% | +-0% | -0.21% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.39% | 6.42% | -0.04% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.51% | -0.03% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | -0.04% | -0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | -0.03% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | -0.04% | -0.17% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank revealed its expectations for this week:
"The Fed is expected to hold rates steady this Wednesday at the final decision of Chair Jerome Powell’s term. The post-meeting press conference will probably focus on Powell’s future and legacy. Will he retire, now that the Justice Department has announced it is dropping the probe into his conduct as Chair? Powell said after the Fed’s March decision that he has 'no intention of leaving the Board until the investigation is well and truly over,' and Senator Thom Tillis blocked the confirmation of Powell’s successor until he is satisfied the probe is resolved. Powell’s term as governor runs on a separate timeline from his term as Chair and extends into early 2028, so he could continue serving as acting Chair until President Trump’s nominee Kevin Warsh is confirmed—and stay on as a governor even longer if he believes it is necessary to protect the Fed’s independence.
"Real GDP likely rose moderately in the first quarter, supported by a big rebound in government spending after last year’s government shutdown ended. AI likely continued to fuel robust growth in fixed investment in computing equipment, software, and research and development in the quarter. Consumer spending growth was likely moderate as larger tax refunds offset the headwind from higher gas prices. The personal income and outlays report for the month of March, also due this week, will likely show headline PCE inflation drifting up toward 4% on higher energy prices, while core PCE inflation holds closer to 3%."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations, which are a consensus of a wider pool of analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. But the consumer confidence index for April is much more likely to affect mortgage rates than the S&P Case-Shiller home price index for February.
Markets expect the consumer confidence index to fall back to 89.1 from 91.8. No expectation has been published for the home price index.
Mortgage rates tend to fall when a report's actual figures are worse than expected, and to rise when they're better. When numbers are on or close to forecasts, those rates rarely move in response to the data.
Recently, bond markets (one of which determines mortgage rates) have been fixated on events in the Middle East. And even some important economic reports have had muted impacts.
Later this week
This week brings several potentially important reports and events:
- Tomorrow — Federal Reserve rate decision. However, the chances of rates staying put is 100%, according to the CME FedWatch tool yesterday evening, so mortgage rate-moving surprises are highly unlikely
- Thursday — The Fed's favorite gauge of inflation (the March personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index) plus the first estimate of gross domestic product (GDP) during the first quarter
- Friday — Two April purchasing managers' indices for the manufacturing sector in March
