The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, an increase of 0.05% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.49%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.62%, reflecting an increase of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
"The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined again this week to 6.23%," said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist, in a statement yesterday. "Rates currently stand at their lowest level in the last three spring homebuying seasons. This improvement, coupled with a pickup in purchase applications and refinance activity, as well as an increase in monthly pending home sales, underscores signs of improving momentum in the market."
Mortgage rates climbed moderately higher yesterday, according to ICanBuy, although Mortgage News Daily detected no change at all. Either way, markets are acting strangely.
Every single economic report so far this week has delivered better-than-expected figures. And normally, that would push mortgage rates higher.
Even worse for mortgage rates should have been yesterday's inflation news. "U.S. inflation picture is the worst in almost 4 years," screamed a MarketWatch headline that day.
Investors in the bonds that determine mortgage rates hate nothing more than inflation. So, why have mortgage rates fallen this week? Our best guess is that Wall Street is having a deer-in-the-headlights moment as it struggles to quantify the economic impact of events in the Middle East.
Scroll on down for details of today's economic report and how it might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | +0.05% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.49% | 5.54% | +0.05% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0.03% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0.02% | -0.28% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.65% | 5.8% | +0.02% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.62% | 6.64% | +0.02% | -0.23% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.89% | 5.93% | -0.12% | -0.3% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.38% | 6.4% | +0.03% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.46% | 5.5% | +0.03% | -0.27% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.65% | 6.85% | +0.02% | -0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.77% | 5.91% | +0.02% | -0.3% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.03% | +0.03% | -0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
Here's Comerica Bank's take, published Monday, on this week's economic reports:
"Retail sales jumped in March as consumers paid more to fill gas tanks, but sales excluding gasoline stations were likely about flat. Pending home sales likely fell as the war and higher mortgage rates gave some homebuyers cold feet. On the bright side, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator will likely be revised up from the preliminary release, which fell to a record low. Survey responses collected since the ceasefire will likely be stronger, as lower oil prices and calmer financial markets allay consumers’ worries.
"ADP’s weekly private payrolls report will likely deliver another encouraging signal. This relatively new statistic doesn’t move financial markets as much as the monthly jobs reports published by the government and ADP, but it is likely a useful leading indicator for them. This release will likely show job growth rose above 40,000 per week, equivalent to more than 160,000 per month. If borne out in the monthly data, that would be the fastest private payrolls growth since late 2024."
Comerica's predictions sometimes differ from market expectations, which are the consensus of a wider pool of analysts' and economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It can usually affect mortgage rates, but may be overshadowed by the situation in the Middle East, like all the other reports so far this week.
This morning's report is the consumer sentiment index for April. And markets expect it to have risen this month to 48.6 compared with the preliminary April estimate of 47.6.
Typically, mortgage rates tend to rise on better-than-expected data and to fall on worse-than-expected numbers. When a report's actual figures are close to forecasts, those rates rarely move. Recently, those guidelines have often not applied.
