The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.27% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.44%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.63% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.6%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely moved yesterday as markets held their nerve and remained optimistic about an early resolution to the Middle East dispute.
We're not alone in fearing that such optimism might be misplaced. "The Treasury market could be failing to account for potential risks related to higher inflation stemming from the war and a U.S. budget whose improvement could be stalling," said Barron's yesterday afternoon. Mortgage Rates are closely linked to Treasury yields, and especially those on 10-year notes.
In an e-newsletter, also yesterday, The Economist magazine explored the risks that might yet push yields and mortgage rates higher:
"[Gas] is a bit pricier, but most households can still afford to drive. Trucks keep trucking. Planes continue to fly. This comforting picture is deeply misleading, our analysis finds. Damage has already been done, and if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, it could cause the fuel system to seize up."
Scroll on down for details of today's economic reports and how they might affect mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.27% | 6.3% | +0% | -0.23% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.44% | 5.49% | +0.02% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.85% | +0% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.9% | +0.01% | -0.2% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.64% | 5.78% | -0.02% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.6% | 6.62% | -0.03% | -0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.02% | 6.05% | +0.08% | -0.03% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.35% | 6.38% | +-0% | -0.2% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.43% | 5.48% | +0.01% | -0.22% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.19% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.75% | 5.89% | +0.01% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.96% | 6.01% | +0.08% | -0.14% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
Here's Comerica Bank's take, published Monday, on this week's economic reports:
"Retail sales jumped in March as consumers paid more to fill gas tanks, but sales excluding gasoline stations were likely about flat. Pending home sales likely fell as the war and higher mortgage rates gave some homebuyers cold feet. On the bright side, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Indicator will likely be revised up from the preliminary release, which fell to a record low. Survey responses collected since the ceasefire will likely be stronger, as lower oil prices and calmer financial markets allay consumers’ worries.
"ADP’s weekly private payrolls report will likely deliver another encouraging signal. This relatively new statistic doesn’t move financial markets as much as the monthly jobs reports published by the government and ADP, but it is likely a useful leading indicator for them. This release will likely show job growth rose above 40,000 per week, equivalent to more than 160,000 per month. If borne out in the monthly data, that would be the fastest private payrolls growth since late 2024."
Comerica's predictions sometimes differ from market expectations, which are the consensus of a wider pool of analysts' and economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. In theory, any of them could move mortgage rates. But, in practice, we doubt any of them will, absent truly shocking data.
Two of them are "flash" (early estimates, subject to revision) purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for April. PMIs measure activity in organizations' purchasing departments, and can be helpful as early indicators of future economic activity. However, today's come from S&P Global, and they tend to be less influential than those from the Institute of Supply Management.
The reports due this morning are:
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Apr. 18 — Markets expect 210,000 claims, slightly up from the previous week's 207,000
- April PMI for the services sector — Markets expect the index to read 51.0, a little stronger than March's 49.8
- April PMI for the manufacturing sector — Markets expect the index to read 52.5, a tiny bit stronger than March's 52.3
Typically, mortgage rates tend to rise on better-than-expected data and to fall on worse-than-expected numbers. When a report's actual figures are close to forecasts, those rates rarely move.
