Mortgage Rates Today, Apr. 21, 2025: Uncertainty for the Economy, Markets and Mortgage Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.9% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.97%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.27%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.39%, reflecting an increase of 0.04%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates did pretty well last week. But we doubt that's the start of a favorable trend, especially as they start this morning a little higher than they were two weeks ago, according to Mortgage News Daily's rate archive.
Investors remain skittish, especially over tariffs, but also over future budget deficits and how mass deportations might affect the supply of labor. And that means high levels of volatility. News and even rumors can send markets soaring or tumbling within hours or sometimes minutes.
So, it's too soon to be trying to spot consistent trends. Those are unlikely to emerge until Wall Street gains more confidence in what the future might bring.
Tariffs, recession and interest rates
Yesterday evening, The Wall Street Journal published a story under the headline, " ... Trade Offensive Threatens America’s Financial Primacy." It said, "Volatility in Treasury markets and unexpected weakness in the dollar suggest that what began as a trade conflict could morph into a more dangerous 'capital war.' The clash threatens to raise U.S. borrowing costs by undermining Washington’s long-standing financial primacy, which for years has drawn trillions of dollars of foreign funds into the country."
Dr. Torsten Sløk, who chief economist for the global asset management company Apollo, had a busy weekend. He issued two notes that could be meaningful for mortgage rates.
On Saturday, Sløk wrote, " ... tariffs have been implemented in a way that has not been effective, and there is now a 90% chance of what can be called a Voluntary Trade Reset Recession ('VTRR')." That's a much higher probability of a recession than most economists are currently saying.
He explained why he thought the chances were so high: " ... implementing extremely high tariffs overnight hurts many businesses; particularly small businesses because the tariff must be paid by the business when the imported goods arrive in the US. Small businesses that have for decades relied on a stable US system will have to adjust immediately and do not have the working capital to pay tariffs. Expect ships to sit offshore, orders to be canceled, and well-run generational retailers to file for bankruptcy. ... small businesses account for more than 80% of US employment and capex [capital expenditures]."
Sløk's second paper, published yesterday, noted that it takes the U.S. 18 months on average to negotiate a trade deal. So, the idea that it will be able to finalize the 90 deals required within the 90-day tariff pause that's currently in place seems ... well, fanciful at best. And that means yet more uncertainty for Wall Street.
Nobody likes recessions, but they almost always come with a bright silvery lining: lower mortgage rates. However, there's no certainty that any recession that emerges this year will come with one of those.
That's because many economists expect high tariffs to drive inflation upward. And, as we reported on Thursday, the Federal Reserve last week signaled that it will prioritize reining in inflation by keeping general interest rates high rather than cutting those rates to head off a recession.
True, the Fed doesn't directly set mortgage rates as it does changes to most other interest rates. But the drivers behind its rate decisions are very similar to the ones that investors apply when they are buying and selling the mortgage bonds that determine mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.93% | +0.04% | +0.37% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.97% | 6.02% | +0.05% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.27% | 7.47% | +0% | +0.42% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.38% | 6.53% | +0.02% | +0.53% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.4% | 6.55% | +0.11% | +0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.39% | 7.41% | +0.04% | +0.68% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0.02% | +0.56% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.97% | 7% | +0.03% | +0.33% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.96% | 6.01% | +0.03% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.27% | 7.47% | +0.01% | +0.43% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.46% | 6.6% | +0.02% | +0.52% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.94% | 6.98% | +0.04% | +0.41% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates — as we've seen frequently recently, especially over tariffs.
Mortgage rates today
The lone economic report on MarketWatch's economic calendar today covers leading economic indicators in March. Unsurprisingly, they're expected to fall back to -0.5% from February's -0.3%.
Don't get too excited. This report is among those that rarely affect mortgage rates.
This week
There are no economic reports scheduled for tomorrow. Indeed, there aren't any blockbuster reports at all on this week's calendar. Just keep an eye on a couple of purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) due Wednesday and the final consumer sentiment index for April on Friday.
