The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.31% yesterday, unchanged since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.53%, the same as one the day before. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.66% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.75%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Last Friday, we reported, "Mortgage rates have certainly moved lower since the Middle East ceasefire was announced on Tuesday evening." As the breakdown in peace talks over the weekend puts that ceasefire at risk, we're worried there will be upward pressure on those rates this week.
Yesterday, we learned that the U.S. Navy plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz starting at 10 a.m. ET this morning. When global markets opened last night, oil futures immediately climbed 7.45% (Brent) or 8.15% (general oil) in response to the weekend's news, both topping $100 a barrel again. Unless that changes quickly, we're expecting today to be bad for mortgage rates.
Friday's consumer price index (CPI) had very little effect on mortgage rates, despite its dire numbers. That's because markets were expecting the bad news before it landed, and investors had already adjusted their portfolios accordingly. The good numbers beat expectations, allowing those rates to fall a little.
We doubt today's lone economic report will make much difference to mortgage rates. Existing home sales reports rarely do.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.31% | 6.33% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.53% | 5.58% | +0% | +0% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.66% | 6.87% | +0% | -0.02% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.78% | 5.93% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.7% | 5.84% | +0% | -0.14% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.75% | 6.77% | +0% | +0% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.05% | +0% | +0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.37% | 6.4% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.49% | 5.53% | +0% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.63% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.05% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.76% | 5.91% | +0% | -0.1% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.01% | 6.05% | +0% | +0.04% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Mortgage rates today
There is only one economic report on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. It covers existing home sales in March, and we doubt that it will have much impact on mortgage rates, unless it delivers truly shocking results.
Sales are expected to inch lower, falling to a year-over-year figure of 4.05 million existing homes sold, compared with February's 4.09 million.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
