The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.34% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.54%, up by 0.03%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.71% yesterday, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.8%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates have certainly moved lower since the Middle East ceasefire was announced on Tuesday evening. But they haven't tumbled as far as many might have wished.
Why not? Because the whole ceasefire seems more fragile than Wall Street would like. And the parties are already disagreeing about its terms.
That, barring fresh dramatic news from the Middle East, may leave room for today's star economic report to influence mortgage rates. That's March's consumer price index (CPI).
Today's CPI is even more important than most months' editions are. That's because it will provide the first indications of how events in the Middle East are affecting inflation in the U.S.
The investors who trade in mortgage-backed securities (the bonds that determine mortgage rates) are highly sensitive to rising inflation. So, if consumer prices have risen even more than expected, that could spell bad news for us.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.34% | 6.37% | +0.02% | +0.17% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.54% | 5.58% | +0.03% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.71% | 6.91% | +0% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.8% | 5.94% | -0.01% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.78% | 5.92% | +0.09% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.8% | 6.82% | +-0% | +0.09% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 5.99% | 6.03% | -0.09% | -0.05% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.41% | 6.44% | +0.01% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.55% | +0.03% | +0.18% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.69% | 6.9% | +0.01% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | +0% | +0.11% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.03% | 6.07% | -0.09% | +0.04% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular preview of the week ahead:
"The CPI is forecast to climb back above 3% in the March release on surging prices of gasoline, which last week topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Core CPI is also expected to firm as airfares rise. Minutes from the Fed’s March 18 meeting will likely reinforce the message that interest rates are on hold until policymakers have a better understanding of how the Iran War is affecting the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will likely be revised lower, reflecting weaker consumer spending on services. The week will also bring the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation for February (PCE), though it will matter less for financial markets than usual since the war subsequently pushed inflation higher in March."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations because the latter are a consensus drawn from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are three economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The CPI is typically by far the most important, although the consumer sentiment index can also be influential. It's unlikely that February's factory orders will affect mortgage rates.
Like other price indices, the CPI report has four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (March), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Apr. 1, 2025-Mar. 31, 2026).
One for each period is the straight CPI, covering all prices in the survey. And the other for each period reports "core" CPI, which is all prices excluding those for food and energy purchases. So, rising gas and energy prices won't be reflected in the core figures
Here are this morning's four, together with market expectations for each:
- March CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.9%, much warmer than February's 0.3%
- YOY CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 3.3% YOY, way up from February's 2.4%
- March core CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.3%, slightly warmer than February's 0.2%
- YOY core CPI — Markets expect prices to have risen by 2.7%, warmer than February's 2.5%
With inflation reports, mortgage rates tend to fall on lower-than-expected numbers and to rise when figures are higher than expected.
Today's other reports are:
- April consumer sentiment (preliminary) — Markets expect the index to have fallen to 52.0 from March's 55.5
- February factory orders — Markets expect orders to have risen by 0.2%, better than January's 0.1%
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
