The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.32% yesterday, a decrease of 0.12% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.51%, down by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.7% yesterday, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.8%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday was good for oil prices, stock markets and mortgage rates. That was due to the unveiling of a ceasefire between Iran, Israel and the U.S. on Tuesday evening.
However, by yesterday evening, that ceasefire was looking exceedingly fragile. "As Wednesday drew to a close in Iran, it remained unclear whether the country would allow ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway whose opening has been a sticking point of the war," reported The New York Times last night. "No oil tankers have crossed the strait since the cease-fire was announced, according to data from Kpler, a global ship-tracking firm."
Markets and mortgage rates are likely to react negatively if the strait is confirmed closed to most oil tankers. But we'll have to wait to see how that plays out.
We're not expecting fireworks from today's major inflation report. That's because it includes only February data, which were reporting on prices before the current disruption in the Middle East arose.
Things could be very different tomorrow when the consumer price index is released. That covers March and so reflects how that disruption is affecting prices in the United States. But, of course, that, too, could be overshadowed by unfolding events in the Middle East.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.32% | 6.35% | -0.12% | +0.08% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.51% | 5.55% | -0.11% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.7% | 6.91% | -0.07% | +0.08% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.81% | 5.95% | -0.08% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.68% | 5.83% | -0.12% | -0.01% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.8% | 6.82% | -0.02% | +0.08% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.12% | -0.01% | +0.06% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.4% | 6.42% | -0.1% | +0.04% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.48% | 5.52% | -0.11% | +0.06% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.68% | 6.89% | -0.07% | +0.09% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.79% | 5.93% | -0.09% | +0.04% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.12% | 6.16% | +0.01% | +0.11% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
On Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular preview of the week ahead:
"The CPI is forecast to climb back above 3% in the March release on surging prices of gasoline, which last week topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Core CPI is also expected to firm as airfares rise. Minutes from the Fed’s March 18 meeting will likely reinforce the message that interest rates are on hold until policymakers have a better understanding of how the Iran War is affecting the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will likely be revised lower, reflecting weaker consumer spending on services. The week will also bring the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation for February (PCE), though it will matter less for financial markets than usual since the war subsequently pushed inflation higher in March."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations because the latter are a consensus drawn from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two important economic reports and two minor ones on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. One of the former is February's personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, which is the Federal Reserve's favorite gauge of inflation.
And the other is the second revision of gross domestic product (GDP) during the fourth quarter of last year (Q4/25). Typically, the PCE price index is more consequential for mortgage rates than GDP.
Like other price indices, the PCE report has four headline figures. Two cover the reporting month (February), and the other two are year-over-year (YOY) figures (Mar. 1, 2025-Feb. 28, 2026).
One for each period is the straight PCE price index, covering all prices in the survey. And the other for each period reports "core" PCE, which is all prices excluding those for food and energy purchases.
Here are this morning's four, together with market expectations for each:
- February PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.4%, warmer than January's 0.3%
- YOY PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen by 2.8%, unchanged from January
- February core PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen by 0.4%, unchanged from January
- YOY core PCE index — Markets expect prices to have risen by 3.0%, cooler than January's 3.1%
With inflation reports, mortgage rates tend to fall on lower-than-expected numbers and to rise when figures are higher than expected.
Today's other reports are:
- Q4/25 GDP — Markets expect GDP to have grown by 0.7% that quarter, unchanged since the previous reading
- Initial jobless claims during the week ending Apr. 4 — Markets expect 210,000 new claims that week, up from 202,000 the previous week
- February wholesale inventories — Markets expect these to have fallen by -0.2%, more slowly than January's 0.5%
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Don't worry too much about jobless claims and wholesale inventories. Both rarely affect mortgage rates.
Tomorrow
Tomorrow's consumer price index is likely to be by far more consequential for mortgage rates than today's PCE index. That's because it covers March and therefore includes early indications of how events in the Middle East are affecting inflation back home.
