The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.44% yesterday, a decrease of 0.01% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.62%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.77% yesterday, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.82%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
Yesterday evening's dramatic announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S., Israel and Iran will be welcomed by markets and may help mortgage rates fall. That's because it should see the Strait of Hormuz open for at least 14 days, although Iran looks likely to levy a toll on civilian ships using the narrow passage.
Already, global oil prices have slumped to below $100 a barrel, and futures for U.S. stock indices show improvements. Those changes give grounds for hoping mortgage rates today might fall, perhaps significantly.
However, we'll be surprised if mortgage rates and gas prices return to their pre-war levels anytime soon. Airstrikes have reduced the Middle East's capacity to produce oil, and some countries, especially in Asia, will experience shortages until the newly released tankers can reach them. Meanwhile, this is only a relatively brief ceasefire, and not yet a long-term peace deal.
Yesterday's news might put the publication this afternoon of the Federal Reserve's latest minutes in the shade. These might reveal how members of the Fed's rate-setting committee viewed the likely economic effects of the conflict when they last met in mid-March. But has that information been overtaken by events?Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | -0.01% | +0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.62% | 5.66% | +0.05% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.97% | +0.02% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.04% | +0.03% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.81% | 5.95% | +0.08% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.82% | 6.84% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.1% | 6.13% | -0.01% | +0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.52% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.63% | +0.04% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.75% | 6.95% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.02% | +0.02% | +0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.15% | -0.02% | +0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular preview of the week ahead:
"The CPI is forecast to climb back above 3% in the March release on surging prices of gasoline, which last week topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Core CPI is also expected to firm as airfares rise. Minutes from the Fed’s March 18 meeting will likely reinforce the message that interest rates are on hold until policymakers have a better understanding of how the Iran War is affecting the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will likely be revised lower, reflecting weaker consumer spending on services. The week will also bring the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation for February (PCE), though it will matter less for financial markets than usual since the war subsequently pushed inflation higher in March."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations because the latter are a consensus drawn from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are no economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. However, this afternoon, we're due the minutes of the Mar. 17-18 meeting of the Fed's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
"Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are due Wednesday," said The Barron's Daily e-newsletter on Monday. "While Fed Chair Jerome Powell espoused a 'wait and see' attitude on the Iran war, minutes could reveal more candor from other Fed officials about the economic impact and clues about the future path of interest rates."
How relevant will that information be in the light of yesterday evening's ceasefire?
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Later this week
We're due two highly important inflation reports this week, one tomorrow and the other on Friday. But Friday's consumer price index is likely to be by far the more consequential for mortgage rates.
That's because it covers March and therefore includes early indications of how events in the Middle East are affecting inflation back home. The other, the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, provides February data.
