The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.44% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.62%, up by 0.05%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.77%, having risen by 0.02. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.82%, reflecting a decrease of 0.01%.
The bigger picture
"The world's most important number might be the yield on ten-year American Treasury bonds," wrote The Economist magazine in an e-newsletter over the weekend. "The government's cost of borrowing matters for everything from mortgages to corporate bonds. In recent weeks it has yoyoed, as have yields on other countries' bonds. The volatility reflects the increasing risk of an unpleasant economic outcome: high inflation with stagnant growth."
Mortgage rates have a well-established, though informal, relationship with 10-year Treasury notes' yields, the bonds to which The Economist referred. Mortgage rates are largely determined by yields on a type of bond that competes directly with those Treasurys, the mortgage-backed security (MBS).
Every bond investor is terrified of inflation because nearly all bonds give a fixed income. And rising prices eat away at the value of those incomes.
We'll know more about what's happening to prices on Friday, when the March consumer price index is published. But, so far, markets are expecting dire numbers, with the raw CPI rising 1.0% in March, compared with 0.3% in February.
Before Friday's report, we're likely to see yet more dramatic news from the Middle East, perhaps today. As a rule, escalations send those rates higher while de-escalations drag them lower.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | -0.01% | +0.19% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.62% | 5.66% | +0.05% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.97% | +0.02% | +0.13% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.04% | +0.03% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.81% | 5.95% | +0.08% | +0.12% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.82% | 6.84% | -0.01% | +0.12% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.1% | 6.13% | -0.01% | +0.1% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.5% | 6.52% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.58% | 5.63% | +0.04% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.75% | 6.95% | +0.02% | +0.15% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.87% | 6.02% | +0.02% | +0.13% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.11% | 6.15% | -0.02% | +0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's weekly preview
In an e-newsletter on Monday, Comerica Bank published its regular preview of the week ahead:
"The CPI is forecast to climb back above 3% in the March release on surging prices of gasoline, which last week topped $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022. Core CPI is also expected to firm as airfares rise. Minutes from the Fed’s March 18 meeting will likely reinforce the message that interest rates are on hold until policymakers have a better understanding of how the Iran War is affecting the U.S. economy. Real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2025 will likely be revised lower, reflecting weaker consumer spending on services. The week will also bring the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation for February (PCE), though it will matter less for financial markets than usual since the war subsequently pushed inflation higher in March."
Comerica's predictions often differ from market expectations because the latter are a consensus drawn from a wider pool of economists and analysts.
Mortgage rates today
There are two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. We'll be surprised if either of them has a noticeable impact on mortgage rates because they very rarely do.
Here are today's reports, together with market expectations for each:
- February durable-goods orders — Markets expect these orders to fall by -1% in February. They held steady (0%) in January.
- February consumer credit — Markets expect consumers' borrowing to have risen by $10 billion in February, warmer than January's $8.1 billion
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Later this week
We're due two highly important inflation reports this week, one on Thursday and the other on Friday. But Friday's consumer price index is likely to be by far the more consequential for mortgage rates.
That's because it covers March and therefore includes early indications of how events in the Middle East are affecting inflation back home. The other provides February data.
Tomorrow brings no economic reports. However, we are due the minutes of the last meeting of the Federal Reserve's rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Those minutes can affect mortgage rates, but only if they reveal previously unknown insights.
"Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March meeting are due Wednesday," said The Barron's Daily e-newsletter yesterday. "While Fed Chair Jerome Powell espoused a 'wait and see' attitude on the Iran war, minutes could reveal more candor from other Fed officials about the economic impact and clues about the future path of interest rates."
