The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.44% today, unchanged since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.6%, the same as one day ago. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.78%, having stayed the same. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.83%, reflecting no change.
The bigger picture
We're due the March jobs report at 8:30 a.m. Eastern. And that's usually a big deal because the data these reports contain are the ones that typically move mortgage rates the furthest.
However, we can't predict how markets will react this morning, almost regardless of what the jobs report says. That's because Wall Street is both highly volatile and wildly unpredictable.
Take yesterday morning as an example. Markets started out looking very bad for mortgage rates and stocks.
"If the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz extends beyond the end of April, then Goldman Sachs analysts have forecast the price of Brent crude could rise to around $140 a barrel," said Barron's in an e-newsletter yesterday morning. "... Economists forecast that if oil prices remain above $100 a barrel for a prolonged period, U.S. inflation-adjusted GDP growth could be reduced by more than 1 percentage point."
No wonder markets were in a foul mood. However, by the end of the day, mortgage rates were modestly lower, and all but one stock index was higher — despite oil prices rising.
What changed? We really don't know. As far as we can tell, the mood just lifted for no apparent reason. But let's not complain.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.44% | 6.47% | +0% | +0.31% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.6% | 5.64% | +0% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.78% | 6.99% | +0% | +0.23% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.92% | 6.06% | +0% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.79% | 5.93% | +0% | +0.16% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.83% | 6.85% | +0% | +0.16% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.05% | 6.09% | +0% | +0.11% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.49% | 6.52% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.61% | +0% | +0.24% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.98% | +0% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.05% | +0% | +0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.12% | +0% | +0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
On Monday, Comerica published in an e-newsletter its regular preview of the week's remaining crucial economic report:
"The March jobs report is forecast to show employers added jobs during the month after a drop in February, but that the unemployment rate edged up as more job seekers entered the labor force."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often differ from market expectations because the latter are based on a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are only two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. The jobs report, which is for March, is usually highly important, but the other (an S&P Global purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector) rarely makes a splash.
Here are the three headline elements of the March jobs report, together with market expectations for each:
- Nonfarm payrolls (the number of jobs created or shed in March) — Markets expect +59,000, way higher than February's -92,000 loss of jobs
- Unemployment rate — Markets expect the rate to be 4.4%, unchanged since February
- Hourly wages — Markets expect wages to have risen by 0.3%, slightly less than February's 0.4%
Markets expect this morning's other report, the final S&P Global PMI for the services sector, to show the index slightly lower at 51.1, down from the previous reading of 51.7.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Don't forget that markets will be closed on Monday for the Easter holiday, so mortgage rates shouldn't move that day. We'll extend our weekend and will be back on Tuesday.
