The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was 6.47% yesterday, an increase of 0.02% since the day before. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stood at 5.59%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage averaged 5.79% yesterday, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate was 6.85%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates barely budged yesterday, tempting us to grab the hesitation-at-the-top-of-a-roller-coaster metaphor. But, as most analogies are, this one is far from perfect (though it matched the illustration pretty well).
The fact is, markets are as uncertain now as we can remember. And we can't be sure mortgage rates won't set off on a rising trend again soon. But it's roughly equally likely they'll continue lower, though we doubt they'll get back to their February lows anytime soon.
"Recent developments in the Middle East have added a great deal of uncertainty around economic activity in that region and for the U.S.
economy," said Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John C. Williams in a speech on Monday. And he went on to talk about "mixed signals in the labor market" and "inflation crosscurrents."
"It’s an unusual time for the economy. There are substantial risks, and uncertainty is high — particularly around the economic effects of the
Middle East conflict," Williams concluded.
Yesterday's better-than-expected economic reports may have helped stop mortgage rates from falling again. If they did, you should strap in for tomorrow's official jobs report, which typically contains the most consequential data of all.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.47% | 6.5% | +0.02% | +0.41% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.59% | 5.64% | -0.01% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 7% | -0.03% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | -0.01% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.8% | 5.95% | -0.04% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.85% | 6.87% | -0.05% | +0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.13% | +0.06% | +0.29% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.01% | +0.41% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.6% | -0.01% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.98% | -0.02% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.04% | -0.02% | +0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | +-0% | +0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
On Monday, Comerica published in an e-newsletter its regular preview of the week's remaining crucial economic reports:
"The March jobs report is forecast to show employers added jobs during the month after a drop in February, but that the unemployment rate edged up as more job seekers entered the labor force."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often differ from market expectations because the latter are based on a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are only two economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. And neither of them typically has much impact on mortgage rates.
Here are today's reports, together with market expectations for each:
- Initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 28 — Markets expect new claims for unemployment benefits to have inched up to 212,000 that week, compared with 210,000 over the previous seven days
- February trade deficit — Markets expect this to have expanded to -$62 billion from January's -$54.5 billion
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
