The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.47% today, an increase of 0.02% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.59%, down by 0.01%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.79%, having dropped by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.85%, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates fell moderately yesterday, adding to Monday's gains. Wall Street has new hope that the Middle East will get back to normal sooner than previously expected.
Rumors are swirling that the U.S. could disengage from the region soon. "President Trump told aides he’s willing to end the U.S. military
campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, administration officials said," according to yesterday's Wall Street Journal.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration doesn't expect gas prices to return to 2025 levels until at least next year, meaning inflation may remain elevated into 2027. And, if that's how things work out, we probably shouldn't expect mortgage rates to dip to February 2026's multi-year lows for some time.
Still, there's hope for further falls, perhaps very soon, although any downward trend that might emerge will inevitably be punctuated by days when those rates rise. And, as investors lose their obsession with the Middle East, domestic economic reports could regain their importance.
Speaking of which, we're due two big ones this week, including today's retail sales data for February and Friday's official jobs report for March.
Scroll on down for information about today's economic reports, including their possible impact on mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.47% | 6.5% | +0.02% | +0.41% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.59% | 5.64% | -0.01% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 7% | -0.03% | +0.32% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.91% | 6.06% | -0.01% | +0.3% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.8% | 5.95% | -0.04% | +0.17% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.85% | 6.87% | -0.05% | +0.33% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.09% | 6.13% | +0.06% | +0.29% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.53% | 6.56% | +0.01% | +0.41% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.56% | 5.6% | -0.01% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.77% | 6.98% | -0.02% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.9% | 6.04% | -0.02% | +0.25% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.08% | 6.11% | +-0% | +0.19% |
What's coming up?
Although economic reports are usually the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates. News items concerning the war, employment, inflation, tariffs, and deficit funding are especially influential at the moment.
Comerica Bank's preview of the week ahead
On Monday, Comerica published in an e-newsletter its regular preview of the week's remaining crucial economic reports:
"The March jobs report is forecast to show employers added jobs during the month after a drop in February, but that the unemployment rate edged up as more job seekers entered the labor force.
"Retail sales likely rebounded in February on higher new and used auto sales after harsh weather weighed on January sales. Individual income tax refunds are up 12.5% so far this year. Core retail sales likely rose moderately in February. Consumer spending was in good shape before the Iran War, but discretionary spending likely will look more cautious in the next release for March."
Comerica's predictions of reports' data often differ from market expectations because the latter are based on a wider pool of economists' forecasts.
Mortgage rates today
There are five economic reports on today's MarketWatch economic calendar. Retail sales data are typically the most influential of this morning's crop.
We're also due the ADP employment report for March, which is sometimes seen as a bellwether for Friday's official jobs report. It measures only private-sector jobs.
Besides that, we're due a couple of purchasing managers' indices (PMIs) for the manufacturing sector. These gauge procurement levels in organizations' purchasing departments, so they can be helpful guides to future economic performance. Ones from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) tend to be more influential than those from S&P Global.
Here are today's reports, together with market expectations for each:
- February retail sales — Markets expect sales to have risen by 0.5% that month, having slowed by -0.2% in January
- March's ADP employment report — Markets expect this purchasing managers' index to have declined to 55.1 from 57.7 in February
- Final March manufacturing PMI from the ISM — Markets expect the March index to read 52.1%, a little below February's 52.4%
- Final March manufacturing PMI from S&P Global — Markets expect the March index to read 52.4, above February's 51.6
- January business inventories — Markets expect zero change that month, following January's 0.1% growth.
Mortgage rates typically rise when important reports deliver better-than-expected economic news, and fall when that news is worse than expected. Outcomes close to expectations tend not to affect mortgage rates.
Stand by for the official jobs report on Friday. It's typically the most consequential economic report each month.
