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Mortgage Rates Today, Oct. 2, 2024: Countdown to Friday's Jobs Report Continues

Couple taking picture of home for sale: mortgage rates today

The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.22% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.23%, up by 0.15%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.53%, having risen by 0.03. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.61%, reflecting an increase of 0.08%.

In brief

Mortgage rates fell yesterday, neatly canceling out Monday's rise, according to Mortgage News Daily.

However, that probably had little to do with Tuesday's economic reports. Some were a bit better than expected and others a bit worse. And together they were unlikely to make much difference.

What did spook markets was the escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Amid such uncertainty, investors often escape risky stock markets to the relative haven of safer bonds. That extra demand pushes up bond prices, which inevitably drags bond yields lower.

And, of course, mortgage rates are largely determined by yields on a type of bond, the mortgage-backed security.

An aggressive and immediate response by Israel to Iran's attack might cause mortgage rates to fall further. But the timing of such a response is as yet unclear. As a Barron's headline put it yesterday evening, "Iran Attacks Israel. The Israeli Response Will Drive the Market."

Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days

Purchase Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.22% 6.26% +0.08% -0.13%
15-Year Fixed 5.23% 5.3% +0.15% -0.15%
30-Year Fixed FHA 5.53% 6.37% +0.03% -0.17%
30-Year Fixed VA 5.58% 5.72% -0.03% -0.13%
30-Year Fixed USDA 5.56% 5.69% +0.05% -0.17%
30-Year Fixed Jumbo 6.61% 6.64% +0.08% -0.24%
5/6 Year ARM 6.59% 6.65% +0.05% -0.23%

Refinance Rates

Loan Type Rate APR Daily Change Monthly Change
30-Year Fixed 6.2% 6.23% +0.06% -0.26%
15-Year Fixed 5.06% 5.12% +0.15% -0.33%
30-Year Fixed FHA 5.52% 6.36% +0.02% -0.17%
30-Year Fixed VA 5.57% 5.72% -0.02% -0.14%
5/6 Year ARM 6.48% 6.53% +0.05% -0.41%
How we source rates and rate trends.

Coming up

Mortgage rates today

Assuming Israel bides its time in responding to Iran, mortgage rates might be affected by this morning's sole economic report, the ADP employment report for September.

This is nothing like as crucial as Friday's official jobs report. However, markets sometimes think it might predict what the more important report will say, although the evidence for that is limited.

Markets expect today's report to show the number of new private-sector jobs created that month rising to 128,000 from August's 99,000, according to MarketWatch. We can live with that, providing the number isn't noticeably higher than 128,000.

Most political commentators seem to believe that last night's debate between vice-presidential candidates failed to deliver a decisive victory for either side. So, that's unlikely to affect any markets much.


Once again, four senior Federal Reserve officials have speaking engagements tomorrow, three of them as a panel at the same event. And we're due speeches from one more on each of Thursday and Friday.

Tomorrow

Four economic reports are on tomorrow's calendar:

  • Initial jobless claims for the week ending Sep. 28 — Markets expect those to just inch higher
  • Two September purchasing managers' indexes for the services sector — Markets expect those to be unchanged
  • August factory orders — Markets expect those to tumble to 0.0% growth from 5.0% in July

Expect these to affect mortgage rates only if they're materially different from market expectations. Otherwise, they may have very little effect.

And any effect they do have will likely be short-lived. The following day's jobs report might easily swamp their impact.

Friday

It's impossible to overstate the potential importance of Friday's jobs report, aka the employment situation report, for September. Markets and the Fed are both closely focused on the labor market, and this report is by far the most influential gauge of that.

Of course, if Friday's figures are exactly what markets are expecting, the report could be a damp squib. But, if they're not, we could be looking at fireworks that put July 4 in the shade.

All week, we've been saying that if mortgage rates are this time next week significantly different from where they stand this morning, the jobs report will very likely have caused the change.

We'll brief you more fully on what's expected from the jobs report tomorrow.

About The Author:

Peter Warden has been covering mortgage, real estate, and personal finance for 15 years. He has appeared on The Mortgage Reports, Credit Sesame, Bills.com, and other publications.

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