Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 5, 2024: Election Day Jitters Could Last Weeks
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7.02% today, an increase of 0.09% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.09%, up by 0.11%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.32%, having risen by 0.06. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.33%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
In brief
You may have wondered recently whether we've been dabbling in politics. We've been frequently covering Trump trades, and highlighting the close (but imperfect) correlation between increases in the former president's chances of winning today's election and rising mortgage rates.
However, we were very definitely not trying to be political. Our sole purpose here is to tell you what's influencing mortgage rates. And we believe Trump trades have been.
Of course, it's not just us. Google "Trump trades" and you'll find links to articles in The Economist, The Wall Street Journal, the BBC, J.P. Morgan Private Bank, and just about every publication with serious financial coverage.
Had we ignored them for fear of appearing partisan, you'd have rightly called us out for cowardice and failing in our duty to fully inform you about what's driving changes in mortgage rates.
And, of course, former President Donald Trump has plenty of support on Wall Street. Many there like his plans to deregulate business and cut taxes.
But plenty, too, fear that unfunded tax cuts will blow up the deficit and higher tariffs reignite inflation. Those are fears that particularly affect bond markets. And it's a bond market that largely determines mortgage rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.02% | 7.06% | +0.09% | +0.6% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6.09% | 6.16% | +0.11% | +0.71% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.32% | 7.15% | +0.06% | +0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.37% | 6.52% | +0.08% | +0.75% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.23% | 6.37% | +0.01% | +0.57% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.33% | 7.35% | -0.03% | +0.69% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.57% | 6.6% | -0.08% | -0.12% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.01% | 7.05% | +0.11% | +0.65% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.92% | 5.98% | +0.1% | +0.73% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.31% | 7.14% | +0.06% | +0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.37% | 6.53% | +0.06% | +0.75% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.63% | 6.66% | -0.01% | +0.04% |
Recently
Friday's jobs report
It was a surprise that Friday's jobs report had so little effect on mortgage rates. Although closely associated bond yields started off moving in the right direction, they later changed course. And those rates barely budged that day.
As Barron's put it, "What the heck happened? Investors likely considered the fact that the jobs report was one of the noisier ones in recent memory. The combination of two big late summer hurricanes and the Boeing machinist strike made the numbers look a lot worse."
That lines up with what we said on Friday, "October should have been a bad month for jobs, with disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as strikes." (Last night, the Boeing strike was settled.)
So, perhaps markets shrugged off the report, judging that it applied only to a single month and would inevitably bounce back in November.
Yesterday
How come mortgage rates moved modestly lower yesterday? Writing yesterday in his DealBook e-newsletter for The New York Times, Andrew Ross Sorkin suggested: "Investors this [Monday] morning appear to be unwinding bets on the so-called Trump trade. In a major reversal, bonds have rallied and the dollar and crypto currencies have dipped in the race’s final hours."
Why would Trump trades be unwinding? Yesterday's The Barron's Daily e-newsletter referred to "the polls tightening over the weekend." And it continued, " ... the one certain thing this week will be the uncertainty—particularly if the wait for a result drags on."
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
Three economic reports are on today's calendar, according to MarketWatch. Up first is the September trade deficit, and markets are expecting that to increase to $84.0 billion from August's $70.4 billion.
The other two are October purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) for the services sector. Markets have no expectations for the one from S&P Global.
But they do for the PMI from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). That's expected to drop to 53.7% from September's 54.9%.
As always, worse-than-expected economic news tends to push mortgage rates lower. But will markets be so dazzled by election day that they won't even notice these reports?
Tomorrow
Tomorrow is the first possible day on which we could learn the results of the presidential and congressional races. It's highly likely we'll have to wait longer (perhaps much longer), but this is such a strange election that nobody can be sure of anything much.
And that includes how markets will react to the outcome. But, if there's any sort of consensus, it's that a win by Vice President Kamala Harris will drag mortgage rates lower while a victory for former President Donald Trump could push them upward.
Some of the impact of either victory might be offset if the opposing party controls the House or Senate. Markets are likely to react sharply if either party makes a clean sweep of congress and the White House.
There are no economic reports on tomorrow's schedule. But stand by for Thursday's announcement by the Federal Reserve of any change it might make this month to general interest rates.
