Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 4, 2024: A Potentially Explosive Week for Rates
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.93% today, a decrease of 0.07% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.98%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.26%, having dropped by 0.07. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.36%, reflecting an increase of 0.01%.
In brief
It's a pretty vanilla week for economic reports. There are a couple of purchasing managers' indexes, a productivity report, and some consumer confidence figures. But nothing to get the pulse racing.
So why the potential for dramatic changes in mortgage rates? There are two reasons.
The first is tomorrow's election. It's just possible that we'll know the outcome of the presidential race that night or over the following days. But many think it could take weeks for the result to emerge. And some believe we may not have a decisive outcome before January.
However, when the results are known (and Congressional seats might be nearly as important as the White House), we might well see sharp movements in mortgage rates. Nobody can be sure that will be the case, but we'd rate it a strong possibility.
The second reason for potential volatility comes on Thursday. That's when the Federal Reserve decides if and by how much to cut general interest rates.
Most see a quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut as highly likely. And, if one of those is announced, it might cause barely a ripple in mortgage rates.
But a half-point cut isn't out of the question, which would likely cause mortgage rates to tumble. And a Fed decision to hold general interest rates steady would probably cause them to surge. But all that depends on how the election is looking then.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.93% | 6.96% | -0.07% | +0.51% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.05% | -0.02% | +0.6% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.26% | 7.1% | -0.07% | +0.54% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.46% | -0.04% | +0.68% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | +-0% | +0.54% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.36% | 7.38% | +0.01% | +0.72% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.68% | -0.22% | -0.04% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.9% | 6.94% | -0.08% | +0.56% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.82% | 5.88% | -0.03% | +0.63% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.25% | 7.09% | -0.07% | +0.54% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.3% | 6.46% | -0.05% | +0.69% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.64% | 6.67% | -0.23% | +0.05% |
It was a surprise that Friday's jobs report had so little effect on mortgage rates. Although closely associated bond yields started off moving in the right direction, they later changed course. And those rates barely budged that day.
As Barron's put it, "What the heck happened? Investors likely considered the fact that the jobs report was one of the noisier ones in recent memory. The combination of two big late summer hurricanes and the Boeing machinist strike made the numbers look a lot worse."
That lines up with what we said on Friday, "October should have been a bad month for jobs, with disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as strikes."
So, perhaps markets shrugged off the report, judging that it applied only to a single month and would inevitably bounce back in November.
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
The lone report on today's calendar is factory orders in September. And they're expected to be a little worse than in August. But don't expect them to move mortgage rates far.
Today is also the last day on which to make wagers — sorry, "speculative investments" — on the outcome of tomorrow's election. Of course, technically, investors could lay bets by trading bonds right up until the result is called. But some may see today as some sort of last opportunity.
If so, we may see some volatility in mortgage rates today.
Tomorrow
There are two economic reports on tomorrow's schedule. They're an October purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management and the trade deficit in September.
Both are expected to be worse than in their previous reporting periods. We'll bring you more detailed market expectations for them tomorrow.
Besides those, markets may be more jittery than usual owing to election day.
