Mortgage Rates Today, Nov. 1, 2024: It's Jobs Day!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 7% today, a decrease of 0.01% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.33%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.34%, reflecting no change.
In brief
We delayed publishing this report to bring you this morning's highly important jobs market figures. Read on for details. But it was probably good or great news for mortgage rates today.
Mortgage rates nudged higher again yesterday. But neither Trump trades nor that day's economic reports appeared responsible. Indeed, if anything, those reports might have helped moderate the rise.
Instead, American bond markets followed their global counterparts. And they were responding to a new budget unveiled by the UK government the day before. With luck, that may turn out to be a one-day wonder, at least on this side of the Atlantic.
Today's jobs report showed the number of new jobs created during October at 12,000, compared to market expectations of 110,000. And that's likely to prove good for mortgage rates today.
That assumes that Trump trades aren't in play today. They are market reactions to the possibility of the former president taking the White House. The greater his chances, the higher mortgage rates go.
An hour after the jobs report landed, yields in bond markets were falling moderately, which is typically good for those rates.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7% | 7.04% | -0.01% | +0.78% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 6% | 6.07% | -0.02% | +0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.33% | 7.16% | -0.01% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.34% | 6.5% | +-0% | +0.77% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.22% | 6.36% | -0.01% | +0.66% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.34% | 7.37% | +-0% | +0.73% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.87% | 6.9% | +0.01% | +0.27% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.97% | 7.01% | -0.02% | +0.78% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.85% | 5.91% | -0.02% | +0.79% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.32% | 7.15% | -0.01% | +0.8% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.35% | 6.51% | +0% | +0.78% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.86% | 6.9% | -0.02% | +0.38% |
Coming up
October was a dire month for mortgage rates. According to Mortgage News Daily's archive, those for 30-year, fixed-rate mortgages averaged 6.20% on Oct. 1. They closed the month yesterday evening at a Halloween-appropriate 7.09%.
That was partly down to better-than-expected economic data as well as Trump trades. But nobody's sure how much blame can be ascribed to each.
Next week might bring wild movements in mortgage rates. We may know in the days following Nov. 5 the likely winner of the presidential election. And, if it's former President Donald Trump, we could see a final enormous Trump trade that sends those rates shooting higher.
However, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, mortgage rates might tumble as investors rewind their Trump trades.
Also next week, on Thursday, the Federal Reserve is due to announce its latest cut to general interest rates, if any. A quarter-point (25-basis-point) cut is widely expected. But no cut could send mortgage rates appreciably higher while a larger one could make them fall.
Still, next week begins slowly with only September's factory orders on Monday's calendar. And those rarely have much effect on mortgage rates.
The danger that day is that investors see it as a last chance to wager on the winner of Tuesday's election.
Mortgage rates today
Normally, we'd be saying that today's jobs report would likely be the month's most consequential event for mortgage rates. But Trump trades have already stolen that crown.
And we aren't sure how the report will hold up if there's a sudden surge in Trump trades later today. Will it swamp the trades or will the trades swamp it?
Anyway, here are this morning's actual figures (in bold), alongside market expectations and September actuals, according to MarketWatch:
- Nonfarm payrolls (new jobs created in October) — Actual 12,000. Markets were expecting 110,000, sharply down from September's 254,000. The average monthly gain over the previous 12 months had been 194,000 so today's figure is spectacularly unexpected
- Unemployment rate — Actual 4.1%. Markets were expecting 4.1%, unchanged from September
- Hourly wages — Actual 0.4%, unchanged from September. Markets were expecting a 0.3% rise
October should have been a bad month for jobs, with disruptions caused by Hurricanes Helene and Milton as well as strikes.
But markets underestimated their effects. And you can see that the report was worse than expected, which is likely good for mortgage rates.
Other economic reports today, including a couple of purchasing managers' indexes, are typically swamped by the almighty jobs report.
