Mortgage Rates Today, Mar. 5, 2025: Market Turmoil Continues
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.58% today, an increase of 0.08% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.59%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.82%, having risen by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 6.94%, reflecting a decrease of 0.03%.
The bigger picture
Oof! All week we've been talking about a new gloom in markets, as reported in the financial press. The mood remains depressed and almost the only glimmer of light has been the lower mortgage rates that have resulted.But do the data really justify that gloom? Unfortunately, yes. And then some.
For some time, the economic news contained in reports has been bad. Just this week, we've seen construction spending and a purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the manufacturing sector underperforming against expectations.
But the bigger picture is perhaps even more bleak. We were especially shocked when we peeked at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's GDPNow forecast. This takes real-world data and feeds it into a model to predict the current quarter's gross domestic product (GDP).
During the previous quarter (Q4/24), the American economy (GDP) grew at 2.3%, according to government figures. On Tuesday, the last update, GDPNow was forecasting a contraction of -2.8% in the current quarter (Q1/25).
In much of the world, a recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth, though we in America use a looser definition. So, even by global standards, a contraction in the first quarter of 2025 won't be a recession by itself.
But, if the economy doesn't turn around in the second quarter — and that's a big ask from such sharp negative growth — many will see the U.S. as being in recession. That's quite a shock. Only a few days ago, GDPNow, we and most economic commentators regarded a recession as a distant possibility.
Meanwhile, other indicators are also troubling. The CNN Fear and Greed index uses seven types of data to measure investor sentiment. Anything below 50 suggests defensive trading by fearful investors, and anything above 50 means investors are confident and bullish (greedy).
Last evening's index stood at 20, within the "extreme fear" range. This time last year, it read 79, meaning "extreme greed."
And the Cboe Volatility Index® (VIX® Index), which measures market expectations of future volatility, was last night at its highest level this year.
All this bodes well for mortgage rates. And a recession, if one happens, could well drag them significantly lower. But many homeowners have jobs and investments besides mortgages. Who wants to see those put at risk?
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.61% | +0.08% | -0.32% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.59% | 5.64% | +0.02% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.82% | 6.65% | +0.01% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.86% | 6.01% | +0.02% | -0.34% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.8% | 5.94% | -0.08% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 6.94% | 6.96% | -0.03% | -0.21% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.65% | 6.69% | -0.06% | -0.38% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.68% | 6.71% | +0.08% | -0.3% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.57% | 5.62% | +0.01% | -0.31% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.8% | 6.63% | +0.01% | -0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.89% | 6.04% | +0.01% | -0.32% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.79% | 6.84% | +0% | -0.01% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
On Monday, the Comerica Bank economics team issued its regular preview of the week ahead. Here's what the team's expecting:
"The February jobs report and the ISM PMIs will be this week’s key data releases. Employment likely rose at a subdued pace again, while the unemployment rate likely edged higher. The DOGE cuts were a headwind to the job market last month, offsetting the recovery of jobs paused during January’s winter storms. Wage increases were likely modest as lower-paid hourly workers returned to work after the weather kept them off the clock in January. ... The ISM Services PMI likely took another leg down."
Mortgage rates today and tomorrow
Here are the economic reports scheduled for release today, according to MarketWatch:
- February purchasing managers' index (PMI) for the services sector from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) — Consensus forecast 52.9%, up a tiny bit from January's 52.8%
- February PMI for the manufacturing sector from S&P Global — No consensus forecast
- February ADP employment report for the private sector — Consensus forecast 148,000 new jobs, sharply down from January's 183,000
- January factory orders — Consensus forecast 1.6% growth, well up on December's -0.9% contraction
Market expectations are largely set by analysts' consensus forecasts. Typically, mortgage rates are barely affected by data that come in on-forecast. Weaker than expected numbers tend to drag those rates lower while stronger-than-expected ones often push them higher.
Tomorrow, we're due two reports that sometimes affect mortgage rates. Initial jobless claims for the week ending Mar. 1 are expected to fall compared with the previous week. And the final reading of productivity during the fourth quarter of 2024 is expected to be unchanged from the previous reading.
