Mortgage Rates Today, Jan. 2, 2025: Happy New Year!
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.96% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.99%, down by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 6.22%, having risen by 0.04. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.34%, reflecting a decrease of 0.02%.
The bigger picture
Mortgage rates didn't have an easy time either in December or over the whole of 2024. Mortgage News Daily's (MND's) archive (which differs slightly from ours owing to different methodologies and sources) says rates for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages ended December at 7.07% having started it at 6.86%.
Meanwhile, Freddie Mac's weekly rates reports (you have to download the data as a spreadsheet) show those same rates standing at 6.85% during the last full week of 2024, compared with 6.62% during that year's first full week.
Let's not get carried away by such numbers. They show homeownership becoming more expensive for first-time buyers and those moving home. But we're not looking at enormous sums when it comes to monthly payments.
Indeed, they're mostly disappointing because many — including many experts — believed that 2024 would be a good or great year for mortgage rates.
Nothing's certain
On Tuesday, we published our forecast for mortgage rates in 2025. And we weren't exactly cheerful.
But, if 2024 showed us anything, it's that accurately forecasting these rates is close to impossible.
We thought the most likely scenario was that mortgage rates would fall this year but only by a little. But we thought the chances of them rising would remain real until we saw how President-elect Donald Trump's policies played out in the economy.
And, if they turn out to be as good as Trump expects, there's a possibility of mortgage rates falling appreciably this year. After all, on the campaign trail, he promised that those rates would tumble into the 2%-3% range during his presidency.
Absent a serious recession, we suspect that's unlikely. But who knows? We might as well all enter 2025 with a positive vibe.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.96% | 7% | +0.04% | +0.29% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.99% | 6.05% | -0.02% | +0.21% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.22% | 7.05% | +0.04% | +0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.24% | 6.4% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 6.29% | 6.43% | +0.1% | +0.38% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.34% | 7.36% | -0.02% | +0.18% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.83% | 6.87% | +0% | +0.24% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 7.02% | 7.06% | +0.03% | +0.34% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.98% | 6.04% | -0.03% | +0.33% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 6.2% | 7.04% | +0.03% | +0.26% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 6.25% | 6.41% | +0% | +0.29% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.89% | 6.92% | -0.03% | +0.2% |
Coming up
Although economic reports are the main drivers of changes to mortgage rates, they're not the only ones. The general mood in markets and economically consequential news can also affect those rates.
Mortgage rates today
Today brings the first of this week's economic reports that typically has the potential to move mortgage rates perceptibly. That covers construction spending in November.
According to MarketWatch, markets are expecting that to rise by 0.3%, slower than October's 0.4%. A number lower than 0.3% might nudge mortgage rates downward while a higher one might push them upward. If the forecast proves correct, we may see no change.
However, construction spending rarely has a sustained or appreciable effect on mortgage rates.
This morning's only other economic report covers initial claims for unemployment benefits during the week ending Dec. 28. They're expected to rise to 225,000 from 219,000 the previous week.
We'd need a number appreciably higher than 225,000 for mortgage rates to fall. But weekly numbers affect markets only very occasionally. They're too volatile and liable to throw up outliers to be taken really seriously absent a clear trend.
Tomorrow
December auto sales will dribble out tomorrow as individual manufacturers release their figures. But the report that's more likely to influence mortgage rates is a purchasing managers' index (PMI) from the Institute for Supply Management.
Markets are expecting this to have slowed to 48.1% in December compared with 48.4% in the previous report. We'd like to see a lower number than 48.1% to have a decent chance of lower mortgage rates.
