Mortgage Rates Today, Dec. 9, 2024: Uncertainty Looms Over Markets
The average 30-year fixed rate mortgage is 6.58% today, an increase of 0.04% since yesterday. The 15-year fixed mortgage rate stands at 5.66%, up by 0.02%. The 30-year FHA mortgage now averages 5.79%, having dropped by 0.01. Meanwhile, the 30-year jumbo mortgage rate is 7.02%, reflecting a decrease of 0.04%.
In brief
We're due the consumer price index (CPI) on Wednesday and the producer price index on Thursday. These aren't as crucial to mortgage rates as they once were, but they still have the potential to move them if they contain surprising numbers.Monday's lone economic report concerns wholesale inventories in October. It's unlikely it will have any consequences for mortgage rates today.
What may well bring consequences are the various geopolitical flashpoints that have been grabbing headlines. Economically important France and South Korea are yet to resolve the constitutional or governmental issues they face.
And, of course, the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria has created a power vacuum (and embarrassment for Russia's President Vladamir Putin). There was already enough uncertainty and danger in the Middle East before this latest spark landed on the powder keg.
The New York Times explains what's at stake: "The overthrow of the Assad government could mean Russia’s bases in Syria are closed and Iran’s pathway to Hezbollah is cut off. Now Iran, newly vulnerable, will have to decide between negotiation and the bomb."
Meanwhile, the fall of former President Bashar al-Assad and his regime is causing headaches for Putin, who has invested his resources and reputation heavily in propping up the failed dictatorship. His reputation as a powerful ally and master of his own destiny has taken a severe hit.
Investors try to anticipate events and price in their consequences before they happen. So, markets hate surprises and the uncertainty they bring.
Mortgage Rate Trends: Past 90 Days
Purchase Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.58% | 6.61% | +0.04% | -0.26% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.72% | +0.02% | -0.25% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 6.63% | -0.01% | -0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.85% | 6% | +0.03% | -0.35% |
| 30-Year Fixed USDA | 5.73% | 5.87% | -0.04% | -0.46% |
| 30-Year Fixed Jumbo | 7.02% | 7.04% | -0.04% | -0.31% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.52% | 6.55% | +0.02% | -0.09% |
Refinance Rates
| Loan Type | Rate | APR | Daily Change | Monthly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30-Year Fixed | 6.67% | 6.7% | +0.02% | -0.14% |
| 15-Year Fixed | 5.66% | 5.72% | +0.02% | -0.11% |
| 30-Year Fixed FHA | 5.79% | 6.63% | +-0% | -0.39% |
| 30-Year Fixed VA | 5.84% | 5.99% | +0.02% | -0.37% |
| 5/6 Year ARM | 6.58% | 6.61% | -0.04% | -0.09% |
Last Friday
Last Friday's jobs report was better than expected. Yet mortgage rates didn't rise. They fell quite a bit.
How come? Well, investors calculated that the report wasn't quite good enough to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting general interest rates on Dec. 18.
Indeed, according to the CME FedWatch tool, specialist investors are now wagering 87.1% to 12.9% that a quarter-point cut will be delivered that day. A week ago, those numbers were 61.6% and 38.4% respectively.
With that risk passed, mortgage rates on Friday fell significantly.
Coming up
Mortgage rates today
As described above, geopolitical events are more likely to affect mortgage rates today than new economic data. Policy and personnel announcements by President-elect Donald Trump might also have an effect.
Tomorrow
Two economic reports are on tomorrow's calendar. First up is the National Federation of Independent Business's optimism index. That's expected to have improved to 94.3 in November compared with 93.7 in October.
Later that morning, we're due the second reading of productivity during this year's third quarter (July to September). Markets expect that to be unchanged from the first reading at an annualized 2.2% increase.
We'll brief you on other reports due later this week before they're published.
